There is nothing like a disappointment to enter into a duel, especially when the disappointed party notices that the rules of a game that had been developing very closely are being changed without warning. Such is the case of what is happening with the relations between the Caretaker Government and the US government. The US recognized the President-in-Charge since that remembered January 23, 2019, closing ranks around a hope that has been fading with time, although politically they still maintain it.
In an interview given a few days ago by the President-in-Charge, Juan Guaidó, to journalist Carla Angola on the Youtube channel EVTV, President Guaidó stated that based on the confidence given to him by the US there would not be "another US-Maduro meeting" other than in the framework of the Mexico talks (see in Spanish Guaidó in interview with Carla Angola-EVTV, There will not be another US-Maduro meeting, in https://youtu.be/ez-OpUdJN9c).
In other words, he is telling us that the foreign policy of the U.S. towards Venezuela would be put in the straitjacket of what would be agreed upon in a dialogue between the regime and the official opposition. And since when has the U.S. ever subordinated its foreign policy to the interests of another country, let alone those of one of its political actors? If I did not know that in politics there is no such thing as naivety, I would say that the official opposition entered into a duel of possible rupture, manifesting the first stage of any self-respecting duel: denial.
How is it possible for the opposition to say that after the meeting between the U.S. and Maduro, where they discussed issues that only the one who holds the real power in Venezuela can deal with, the next talks will take place with those who precisely do not have that power and dispute it with the regime? Please, a little bit of seriousness! The US will continue to deal with Maduro directly without the official opposition if they believe that this will satisfy their interests, especially those related to oil.
Hence the concern that the
government in charge is in denial of reality, putting its head in the ground in
the face of what is happening. If the official opposition is denying the
consequences for our country of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine,
then it will hardly be able to handle what will come after the regime has
advanced political and economic agreements that will definitely screw them in
Miraflores, with the little help of the fabulous interests that move behind the
oil.
As the note published by LaPoliticaOnline.com, reviewing the Washington Post indicated, "Chevron seeks to double Venezuela's 800,000 barrels per day production in a few months." "That could replace the loss of about 700,000 barrels per day that the U.S. imported from Russia before it attacked Ukraine. And it could help lower gasoline prices, one of the Biden administration's main concerns in a difficult election year" (see in Spanish Exclusive: Biden gives Chevron green light to begin operations in Venezuela, in https://www.lapoliticaonline.com/internacionales/biden-da-luz-verde-para-que-chevron/).
According to a twitter message from journalist Nelson Bocaranda, OFAC and Chevron denied the news (see Bocaranda's tweet in, https://twitter.com/nelsonbocaranda/status/1507054202698309647?t=FE3KjmNknF5aKbAl5jqQWg&s=03); however, everything points to the fact that things are moving in the direction indicated by the prestigious Washington Post. Today they may deny the softening of the sanctions, but there is no doubt that they have been working on it for a long time. Messages such as the one from José A. Gil Yepes informing a "second round of negotiations with US companies and the national government. 11 companies in the process" (see @joseagilyepes, in https://twitter.com/joseagilyepes/status/1506321915199336454) certainly point in that direction.
What is happening with the demand for oil abroad is explosive and Venezuela is in the eye of the hurricane. I had already commented that Venezuela is in the conditions of a perfect storm for the criminals of the regime to take advantage of this oil boom to get into a new business with the support of the situation of crude oil shortage (see Venezuela, a ship in a perfect storm, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/venezuela-ship-in-perfect-storm.html). And the worst thing the official opposition can do is to ignore it by taking refuge in the talks in Mexico. The Government in Charge must understand that the ONLY reason why the regime returned to those negotiations was because the US requested it in Miraflores, in the framework of a first step of détente to start talking about oil business.
The worst part of all this
is that when someone is in denial, they can't jump straight to the acceptance
stage without going through the in-between ones (anger, negotiation and
depression) (see in Spanish The 5 phases or stages of grief: the Kubler-Ross
theory https://centrodepsicologiaintegral.com/las-5-fases-o-etapas-del-duelo-la-teoria-de-kubler-ross/). No matter how much they tell Venezuelans that the
US will accompany the official opposition without relaxing the position of its
oil companies so that they can do business with Maduro, the reality indicates
that they are living in a Narnia fantasy.
If Maduro begins to strengthen the Venezuelan economy with a solid oil bill with the help of North American oil companies, starting with Chevron, which promises the Biden administration to double the current Venezuelan production to replace the almost 700,000 barrels imported from Russia, there will be a substantial improvement of international reserves, with the consequent hardening of the national currency and the significant decrease of inflation, and of course, the return of Chávez's socialist subsidies. And in this position the regime will never lose an election.
Do you realize why it is important for the opposition to tell us what is the plan to get out of the regime given this new situation, beyond the simplistic message of a negotiation in Mexico to achieve "free, fair and verifiable elections"? A message that, by the way, ended when prices skyrocketed with a war that started three weeks ago and that everything points to the fact that it will not end soon.
I hope for the good of all that the opposition continues to the next stage of mourning and gets really angry, but not with the US, but with the situation that is being created in favor of the regime and acts accordingly. But they will have to understand that this is a situation that does not depend on them and is irreversible (there is no room for the negotiation stage), let alone time to get sad and depressed (depression stage). They must come to accept (acceptance stage) that this is the kind of problem that occurs when you drag out an unsustainable situation, as it is to continue betting in the long term for a caretaker government when they had three long years to give an answer to the Venezuelans. Well, time is up, we are waiting for answers now...
Caracas, March 25, 2022
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