By Luis Manuel Aguana
Venezuela's problem is extremely complex, to
the point that sometimes when I say that some piece of this complex chess must
be moved in a particular direction, some observer thinks that a mistake is
being made or that move looks contradictory to what has been proposed so far.
Well, it doesn't. The chess that is being developed in Venezuela is not easy to
develop at first sight because a number of variables are involved, the result
of which every day shows us the losers or the winners of this struggle that we
have against a regime that we cannot get rid of if we make a mistake in any
move. A wrong movement can delay the resolution of our tragedy for years.
What do we analysts do? Try to visualize, as
in chess, many future moves - ours and the opposite - to choose the best move,
even suggesting some that look contradictory to the previous one. That's why
you can't see this chess move by move but in the broad context of the
strategies that must be applied to finally win the game. That is why it is
necessary to explain, not a move itself but the complete suggested strategy. At
this point it is no longer important whether that strategy is revealed or not
because the opponent - the regime - has revealed which one is theirs for a long
time (among other things because they are applying it to us), and those who
have not said which one is ours - that is, the opponent - is unfortunately
because they have none, and they implement moves that are like blind men's
sticks, resulting in the enemy increasingly asserting his position,
perpetuating himself in power.
Let us explain then what this is about so
that you can understand a little more of what I am talking about.
Let's look at the problem we have as a big
puzzle of many disordered pieces that we must put in place to be able to see
the picture they contain as a whole, and that has not been shown to us, unlike
ordinary puzzles. Each piece has part of the picture and since you don't know
what the whole picture is, you can spend years trying to put that together. And
we're an important part of this game, so if we're not told what role we're
going to play, then we'll be going around in circles for years, thinking in a
way that contradicts the overall strategy.
After many blows, comings and goings,
failures and frustrations, we Venezuelans have reached the following
regrettable objective conclusion, shared by all the opponents of Venezuela,
including the official opposition: we
cannot do it alone. This is not a simple sentence. That conclusion cost
hundreds of deaths in the streets and in the dungeons of the regime. But we
could have arrived at that shared proposition much earlier if the stubbornness
of those who lead the official opposition's sainete had not insisted on a path
that they could not sustain until the death and exodus of the Venezuelan family
was evident.
Having said that, the objective becomes to
make effective the help of those who have the necessary strength outside our
country to achieve the displacement of the power of Nicolas Maduro Moros and
his criminal narco-terrorist regime. And that is where our serious problem lies
today, because every Venezuelan has his own interpretation of that phrase.
Juan Guaidó and the G4-MUD coalition, the
latter led by Ramos Allup, have insisted that they do not want a military
intervention in Venezuela, understanding that "we cannot do it alone"
in a different way than the rest of the Venezuelans who believe that this
regime only responds to force. They think that international aid should be
manifested in a different way, that is, with threats, sanctions against the regime's
officials and its front men, decisions by the US justice system against them,
etc., without any movement involving armed violence. The international
community, with the United States and the heads of the OAS at the helm, have
indicated that they are not in favour of armed humanitarian intervention
(because all humanitarian interventions are).
The revelation of the famous Operation Gideon
seemed to indicate a change in that Guaidó/G4-MUD position, but we soon
realized that it had been another botched operation similar to that of April
30, 2019, with a corrupt general and double agent of militant Chavismo at its
head, and in which many Venezuelans truly committed to freedom were victims.
The reality is that Venezuela does not have anyone at the head to make
effective the proposal "alone we cannot" in the only way that the
regime understands: by force. And it materializes it in a sufficiently credible
threat to provoke substantive changes in the increasingly compromised
Venezuelan reality. In the face of the socialists' devastation of our country,
we Venezuelans have the right to legitimate defense, making our slogan of
"Overthrowing is constitutional" our own (see Overthrow is
Constitutional, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/overthrow-is-constitutional.html).
Now, there are only two ways in which a
humanitarian intervention can take place in Venezuela: a) that the
International Community does it on its own as was done in Bosnia or Haiti due
to the tragedies of those countries and the international context of those
times, or b) that the Legitimate Government, which at this moment is presided
over by Juan Guaidó, assumes that task, organizing a government in exile,
making use of the resources and recognition it now possesses. Let's analyze both.
In the first case, for the International
Community to decide to come with the blue helmets, or to mobilize an
international coalition armed on its own by some countries to Venezuela, a
decision of the UN Security Council must be taken. And if that were to happen,
it would be because the worst tragedy of Haiti or Bosnia occurred here at the
time (in my modest opinion we are already treading on that ground), or the
COVID-19 has wiped out half the population with a view to contaminating our
neighbours, or we are a proven threat to the national security of the
Americans. In any case, that would not depend on anyone in the opposition, and
would be based on doing nothing in the hope that the situation in the country
would worsen to that point. And that would constitute an unlimited
irresponsibility of the official opposition (they already qualify).
I want to make a special point about
COVID-19. I believe that this pandemic is important but anything we can
actually do against it can only be done in freedom. The real pandemic of
Venezuelans is the unresolved regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, which if it
continues, will cause much more deaths than COVID-19, as it has been until now
in our country if we don't solve it first.
In the second case, the interim government is
doing absolutely nothing to assume the responsibility that we Venezuelans gave
it on January 23, 2019, in order to achieve the famous "cessation of
usurpation. And in the hypothetical case that they did, by appointing a crisis
cabinet, with high-level diplomacy and a military high command included, it
would be up to them to convince the countries that support them to accompany it
to an armed incursion, with Venezuelans at the head, for the liberation of the
country. They would have to reach political and military agreements with the
nations that want to accompany us and generate a critical mass of men and women
to proceed to recover the country. They would have to get some of our neighbors
to lend them part of their territory to start recovering ours by force of blood
and fire. That is the struggle that would be posed
here.
In view of the above, those who are asking
for the approval of the 187#11 Constitution in the National Assembly, and with
that the external forces will magically come to free us, get down from that
cloud. That would indeed be a move of the whole chess game but it happens
because Guaido and the official opposition assume that they must conduct a
process of liberation with all its consequences. In this framework, what has
been done internationally with things like TIAR or R2P would be worthwhile, but
they would be useless if the governments of these countries do not see that we
are not taking the first step to free our territory.
So it is in this context that the use of
anything that helps us gain support for our cause comes into play, an
opposition that clutches up from outside and shows that it is organized, but
above all willing to fight, and not be fought over, in a consolidated
diplomatic and military opposition strategy capable of displacing Nicolas
Maduro Moros from power. It is that and nothing else that would build the
credible threat we once talked about. If the regime sees that you have an army
capable of removing it from power with very high probabilities of success,
that's when negotiations come. It is here where there can be two possible
courses of action: 1) that you do not negotiate anything and go straight to the
expulsion of the regime with an open conflict, where everyone would intervene;
or 2) the regime accepts that the People's Sovereignty be convened to generate
a Transitional Government because at this point there is no longer the
legitimacy of anyone to access power in Venezuela beyond force. And that is the
point that we should reach. That has been ANCO's proposal for the expulsion of
the regime in case the International Community had bought the idea of sanctions
versus Popular Consultation.
Going back to the beginning, if this is the
complete game or the complete figure of the puzzle, how can we reach the end
with any chance of success if those who must play it on our side are already
"bending their legs" for a host of known reasons? Then we should
think about a previous step to recover for the Venezuelans the legitimate
opposition representation that gives this "government in exile" the
necessary support from the Venezuelans to understand each other with the
International Community and to reach the end. That is why I took the liberty of
suggesting a move that would involve the participation of the qualified civil
society demonstrated in those parliamentary elections to dislodge this
"broken bat" leadership that has been discredited after 5 long years
of parliamentary opprobrium. There may be other moves that do not involve
disputing the regime's elections, the leadership that is legitimate in the eyes
of the world to the official opposition, but they will be more difficult to
endorse immediate legitimacy, and whatever they may be we must prepare them
now.
Yesterday, May 29, the U.S. Department of
State announced its support for Guaidó after the Supreme Court of Justice's
decision to remove him from office (ver In Defense of Democracy in Venezuela, in
https://translations.state.gov/2020/05/29/in-defense-of-democracy-in-venezuela/)
and where “urges all parties to consider
the Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela as a pathway towards a
peaceful, stable, and prosperous Venezuela..”.
In my modest understanding, the United States
is not landing on the problem of Venezuela and continues to insist on its
Framework for Democratic Transition which the regime rejected outright, and
will end up accepting as legitimate the outcome of these parliamentary
elections if the official opposition contests them, as they are in fact
negotiating with the regime. Why not do so if AD, PJ and UNT accept it, even if
VP is outlawed? If that happens, how does Guaidó's position stand there after
those elections? Will he continue to be President in charge? Will that American
defense of the legitimate National Assembly continue when its term actually
expires in December? Or will everything be illegitimate for Americans after
those elections, except the Guaido government? We
can't keep that forever!
The truth is that time is running out and we
do not see anything in that official opposition that yesterday obtained new
support from the United States that will help us to make the regime go away.
Take a good look at the game now from above. The puzzle is just beginning to
take shape. It will be up to us to put the pieces in place.
Caracas, May 30, 2020
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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