What everyone perceives as an overwhelming triumph of Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU), could be the mirage of those who in the middle of a desert, dying of thirst, think they see very close an oasis of palm trees with a lake in the middle. Why do I say this? Because we always think, as we have been convinced by the official opposition, that we are dealing with “politicians” and not with fanatics and criminals.
Under normal, democratic conditions we should not be worried. We could be chilling the champagne and the beers, when less than two months before the election we have 6.24 times the voting intention of the regime, according to the May survey (see CATI Venezuela May 2024 Survey, Which of these candidates would you vote for in the 2024 presidential elections, at https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1795296356036452411/photo/2).
But then I return to my first thought: we still believe that we are dealing with politicians, and I have the appreciation that this belief is not only ours as ordinary Venezuelans, but also of the opposition leadership, especially those who are the usufructuaries of María Corina Machado's (MCM) leadership (see María Corina's Bare property, at https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/maria-corinas-bare-property.html).
No se ha visto todavía por NINGÚN LADO que se hayan dado los pasos correspondientes en la dirección de acordar con el régimen su salida ANTES del 28J. Y como he mencionado en mis notas anteriores, en especial la pasada, sigo convencido de que es necesario un acuerdo previo al 28J entre la oposición y el régimen, como lo plantean los presidentes Petro, Lula Da Silva y Boric, a la luz de los resultados previsibles de la elección, para preservar la paz entre los venezolanos (ver La paz política de la transición, en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2024/05/la-paz-politica-de-la-transicion.html).
But apparently that does not concern those who are already dividing the positions in the EGU administration, believing that a criminal fanatic will let them get their hands on the Venezuelan government, without having a bomb to detonate before that. And it is not only the fraud that of course they already have set up, but the chain reaction that would uncontrollably overflow for them if an event occurs that will inescapably remove them from power.
And that is like when you have surrounded a beast that has no way out because it has not been offered anything to give up, it tries to give the last punch, even if it costs them their lives. We are tired of seeing the news of the fanatics from the Middle East who, before being captured, prefer to blow themselves up, together with their closest companions, rather than surrender meekly to their aggressors. And does the MUD-PU still believe that this gang of fanatics who have control of the country will surrender power to them just because we won an election? Then they have not understood the problem we are in.
They will prefer to detonate a device to avoid reaching that event, as a sort of terrorist bomb, even though its effects may be devastating for them. And the bomb has already been announced: the fanatic Luis Ratti, introduces on May 18 “an appeal requesting the nullity of the card of the Democratic Unity Table for the presidential elections of this year scheduled for July 28” (see in Spanish Luis Ratti went to the TSJ to request the nullity of the MUD card for double militancy, in https://talcualdigital.com/luis-ratti-acudio-al-tsj-para-solicitar-nulidad-de-tarjeta-de-la-mud/). That bomb is awaiting a decision by the TSJ. The withdrawal of the international observation of the European Union could be an indication that they are preparing for that.
The device would be detonated one or two weeks before the elections. Do you think that a regime cornered by the Venezuelan people would not dare to detonate that bomb? If they see that despite the technical and operative fraud it is not possible to win the elections, they would detonate the device. They would also hold the elections WITHOUT EGU AND WITHOUT THE MUD, and with all the alacranato, putting on the biggest face you can imagine, without caring at all about what anyone in the International Community says, or the decisions they may take. In fact, they did so with the MCM candidacy, disrespecting the Barbados Agreement and ignoring all the international voices that were raised on that occasion.
They will prefer to do that BEFORE 28J because they would not dare to ignore the result of an evident fraud by the CNE that no one would believe, not even the Armed Forces. This goes beyond fraud. We are talking about a serious problem of governability that the regime would have and that they are not willing to ignore, preferring to simply remove EGU from the electoral ballot to stay in power.
That is the reason why the presidents of Colombia, Brazil and Chile proposed the signing of an agreement that has not yet crystallized, but that both the regime and the official opposition have ignored, and that in one way or another will have a direct impact on what will happen on June 28. It is clear that the regime will not do so because it would be admitting defeat, so that step must be taken by the opposition.
In this sense, some Venezuelans have already anticipated this possible situation by proposing a “Coexistence Pact”. In an article published on the date of the placement of that bomb in the TSJ, economist and professor Víctor Álvarez proposed a way out in direct allusion to this serious problem (see Tal Cual, How to prevent the TSJ from annulling the MUD card?, in https://talcualdigital.com/como-evitar-que-el-tsj-anule-la-tarjeta-de-la-mud-por-victor-alvarez-r/).
Alvarez proposes things like these: “The candidate with a real option to win the presidential elections of June 28 is called to make a viable and credible offer to NM because without guarantees of no political persecution, the ruling party candidate will not measure himself against the one he knows he will lose. Only if the rewards are lifted, the judicial persecution at the ICC is stopped and the guarantees of no political persecution are constitutionalized, the ruling party will accept defeat and surrender power. And it will do so with a previous constitutional reform that designates the former president as deputy for life with parliamentary immunity for political crimes. In order to advance in the solution of the Venezuelan conflict and recover the alternation of power, it is preferable that NM moves to the Legislative Palace as deputy for life than that he continues as president for life in the Miraflores Palace"... And he adds: “A pact of peaceful coexistence with guarantees of no political persecution is what may allow all candidates to run until July 28 so that, regardless of who wins, the country may recover the alternation of power”.
It is not within the scope of this short note to evaluate this proposal, which is part of the toads that the opposition should swallow in order to reach an agreement with the criminals in power so that they do not detonate a bomb. Those who wish to know more about the agreement proposed by economist Álvarez, can see it in an interview made by journalist Vladímir Villegas in his Youtube channel (see in Spanish, Coexistence pact to avoid persecution of losers exposes the economist Víctor Álvarez, in https://www.youtube.com/live/f6JMk_TJlMg?si=PH2_4yCVwFobiIbA).
I cannot conclude this note without mentioning that accepting this blackmail that the regime would impose upon being cornered might not necessarily be the only way out of this problem. Some might think of other ways much more drastic than that, or even continue the struggle after detonating the bomb. My position has been, like that of economist Victor Alvarez, that there must be a negotiation prior to June 28 if we want to continue along the electoral road without dying in the attempt, but unlike him, without suggesting any proposal that should only be the product of a negotiation between the real opposition represented by MCM and the regime. Otherwise, it would be a fraud by those who do not represent Venezuelans, and a true and final blow to our aspiration to regain our freedom...
Caracas, June 5, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
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