In the face of the sea of uncertainty that the world is experiencing due
to the recent economic decisions taken by the US government, which include all
countries, and which promise a deep planetary economic crisis in the short
term, in Venezuela time has been frozen. It seems that the disaster that the
whole world sees for its own country as a result of these measures, we have
already been living it for years: inflation, progressive decrease in the
quality of life and services, evaporation of salaries and pensions, not to
mention the repression and political persecution, with the decapitation of liberties.
What could be worse for us because of the US decisions? In addition to
the tariffs, Trump dedicated a special chapter to us due to the exportation of
the Aragua Train crime regime, and the massive deportation of Venezuelans from
the US, which has brought as a consequence the stain of our gentilicio abroad,
with which I doubt that we could not be worse off, although a bad situation can
always get worse.
In spite of all this, our political opposition leadership “hopes” that
the US government will “give us a hand” to get out of our political problems.
If this were true, they will first solve their problems before addressing ours.
And in the best case scenario, our priority in the face of the problems they
are already beginning to face, and not only because of those economic
decisions, will make our wait very long. How long then should we Venezuelans
wait before shouting like Bolivar in the Patriotic Society, "300 years are
not enough?
Some of you may think that I am very petty and that only 3 months have
passed since January 10 of the swearing-in promise of President Elect Edmundo
Gonzalez Urrutia (EGU) in Venezuela. I will take that risk. Now it turns out
that in the opinion of Dr. Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, Magistrate Emeritus of
the TSJ, the President Elect has incurred in the controversial figure of
“abandonment of office” by not having been sworn in as established by the
Constitution, on the corresponding day, being, according to her criteria, that
such decision is not up to him because there are rules to be complied with:
"... It turns out that it sounded very harsh when I said give me back my vote, and it is also harsher, I think, when I talk about the abandonment of the office, but it is a reality that is not being faced. Because I do not know under what reasoning it was decided that the matter could be left to the president-elect. And as president-elect continue acting as if he were president in office. That is not true, that is not so. There are rules to follow. The Constitution clearly establishes that after 30 days, if the president has not been sworn in, if there is an absolute lack of the president, as is the case because he has not been sworn in, new elections must be held. Besides, the time after a president is voted for and the occasion in which he takes office cannot be infinite. So that is the reality that we are living. What is the consequence, you ask me? Well, the consequence is that new elections have to be held, that is the consequence..." (see Dr. Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, in Arrímate al Mingo, Doble moral, doble discurso, 07-04-2025, in https://youtu.be/7oDSCDG10a0?t=3253).
But they insist on not facing this reality, as Dr. Mármol de León points
out. We are in the famous upside down world, where nobody cares about the
rules, neither the regime nor the opposition. But it happens that the situation
itself leads us to want to freeze time because we do not want to “turn the
page” of July 28, 2024, when the page has de facto changed, even if we do not
want to recognize it. The situation of January 10 is not the situation of
today, even though in Venezuela we have frozen time.
If we want to continue to keep EGU going around the world as an ambassador without portfolio and an opposition leader in hiding indefinitely, I think it is time to change the strategy because the world has continued to turn, unfortunately against our interests. The US is no longer interested in what happens in Venezuela, if it ever was. Even if Trump does not seem to be interested in what happens to the most disadvantaged class in the US after dynamiting all the bilateral and multilateral trade agreements of his country, what do you think will be left for us?
An independent approach that takes into account what will happen in the
region after the U.S. trade measures against the rest of the world is therefore
necessary. In this sense, authoritative economic opinions are already beginning
to emerge, such as that of Dr. Ricardo Hausmann, a researcher at the John F.
Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, who is knowledgeable about
our reality in the Latin American continent:
"Well, we have to look at all the things where Latin America competes with the US in third markets, in soybean production, in corn production, in mineral production, in everything where the US competes with Latin America in third markets, well now it turns out that the Chinese market has been completely opened to us because China does not impose tariffs on us, but the US imposed a tariff of 35% and if tomorrow Trump raises tariffs to 50% more, then we will have all the things that China buys from the US, they will now have to buy them from Latin America. I think this opens up markets for us, we will also be able to do business with other regions that will have to look for alternatives to the US, and I think we have to see how we compensate the American market, which in the case of South America, a market that is so important, how we compensate the American market with the rest of the world market that will now be more closed to the US, because the US will also have difficulties in selling in those markets" (see CNN, Ricardo Hausmann, “The United States is isolating itself economically from the world,” in https://youtu.be/VUmDrzkewP4?t=465).
If everything points to the fact that Latin America will have to turn
into an orbit different from that of the USA, the opposition should be thinking
about a change in the policy sustained up to now, abandoning positions
historically assumed in another reality, operating on the basis of a very
different current and future situation.
If at this moment we cannot continue waiting for something to happen to
materialize the result of July 28 because nobody is going to help us, we must
at least start by materializing, as a first approach to that objective, that
EGU be immediately officially recognized as President in office abroad, despite
being in the condition of abandoning the office, alleging in his defense the
current situation of Venezuela. Failure to do so, after the page has de facto
changed, will imply new elections, which the US Secretary of State, Marco
Rubio, is already proposing, with all the consequences that this entails. Those
who do not accept changes, always end up accepting them, but in the worst
conditions...
Caracas, April 9, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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