By Luis
Manuel Aguana
It seems that now is when important publications that influence political behavior in the US are “cayendo la locha” (an old Venezuelan expression that indicates that they are realizing) what would happen in Venezuela the minute President Donald Trump decides to remove Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime by any means necessary.
Less than a week ago, on November 20, the New York Times (NYT) published an article by journalist Michael Crowley, reporting from Washington, according to which war simulations carried out by the US government “…showed that chaos and violence were likely to erupt in Venezuela as military units, rival political factions, and even jungle guerrilla groups vied for control of the oil-rich country. These declassified findings, backed by other expert analyses, underscore the risk associated with Trump's offensive against Maduro in his second term” (see NYT in Spanish, EE UU simuló el derrocamiento de Maduro. Venezuela se sumió en el caos, in https://www.nytimes.com/es/2025/11/20/espanol/estados-unidos/eeuu-simulacion-derrocamiento-maduro.html).
On the other hand, Crisis Group, a leading independent international organization specializing in global conflict analysis, warns in a report dated October 24:
“The risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be underestimated. Many senior military commanders could resist regime change. Even with an agreement on the terms of the transition, it is not inconceivable that sectors of the security forces could rebel and even wage a guerrilla war against the new authorities. Moreover, the myriad armed groups operating in much of the country would likely take advantage of any power vacuum to consolidate or even extend their territorial control”. ...”Any government that succeeds Maduro will have to contend with a dysfunctional and politicized bureaucracy; a severe economic and humanitarian crisis; and a collapsed infrastructure. It will be extremely difficult to maintain stability if, at the same time, it is subjected to a campaign of political violence” (see in Spanish Crisis Group, Los peligros de forzar un cambio de régimen en Venezuela, in https://www.crisisgroup.org/es/latin-america-caribbean/venezuela/beware-slide-toward-regime-change-venezuela)
But to top it all off, on November 21, Foreign Affairs, one of the world's most important and prestigious publications on global politics, published an article entitled “The Peril of Ousting Maduro,” written by Phil Gunson, which makes such vital points as these:
“It is unlikely that all military officials would back Machado if she won power. The precarious stability between these groups and the government would be likely to collapse with Maduro’s exit, especially if change were to come suddenly and challenge the hold that the president’s allies have on the levers of power. As Juan González, a former top adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden’s on Latin America, has noted, conditions in Venezuela are ripe for protracted low-intensity warfare. This could make Venezuela look more like Colombia or Mexico, rife with selective assassinations, bombings, and occasional street battles, yet lacking the kind of stable elected government that exists in Bogotá or Mexico City. Machado speaks confidently of an ambitious 100-day plan she has readied that includes restoring institutional rule, stabilizing the economy, reforming the armed forces, and addressing a poverty-driven humanitarian crisis. But if the Trump administration declined to contribute significant U.S. ground forces to Venezuela, an incoming opposition government would be reliant on the same generals it now accuses of running drug cartels to survive”… “Machado could be right in predicting that some military officials would back her if she managed to win power. But it is unlikely that all of them would. And if the military were to split into competing factions or if a post-Maduro administration were to dissolve the army and dismiss civilian officials, the chances of violent chaos would increase further. A Machado-González government without sufficient military backing, domestic or foreign, would be unlikely to be able to fend off a campaign of violent harassment by armed groups seeking to destabilize it” (see Foreign Affairs, The Peril of Ousting Maduro, in https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/peril-ousting-maduro) (highlighted ours).
This article from Foreign Affairs, as well as the Crisis Group report mentioned above, served as the main source of support for the NYT's assertion regarding the outcome of the war games, in order to dismiss the possibility of imminent US intervention in Venezuela.
Gunson's article concludes, “Venezuela, in other words, cannot be promptly transformed into a free country. No matter how unreliable Maduro’s government is at the negotiating table, trying to force regime change through violence will ultimately undercut the goal of both the opposition and the vast majority of Venezuelans to set up a safe, stable, and law-based system to replace Maduro’s rule. Attempting a shortcut could leave the country even worse off than it is today” (see Foreign Affairs article cited above).
But I wonder: why now? Since Trump took office as President of the United States, barely 10 days after the electoral fraud of July 28, 2024, was perfected with an irritating inauguration in Venezuela, as well as the previous administration of President Joe Biden, the US government has expressed its interest in a change of government in Venezuela. and now, when that change in the course of events in our country seems imminent as a result of Trump's decision, they suddenly appear to “realize” what everyone else perceives, that a supposed government of Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) and María Corina Machado (MCM) would not seem to have sufficient support to remain in power after a hypothetical fall of the regime. Please! We are not that stupid!
In fact, this writer, from a dark corner of the internet, without the global knowledge base or prestige of those three publications, wrote and argued the same thing on September 30 in this blog: "So, does that mean they would come, remove the heads of the regime, transfer Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado to Miraflores, and leave the rest of us Venezuelans with the aftermath of getting rid of the regime's narco-criminal superstructure so that the opposition can retain power during a transition? That seems, to say the least, suicidal. If the Americans at least said that this is covered by local forces, without the opposition having to confirm or deny it, the matter would not seem so far-fetched. But the fact is that American officials themselves, such as James Story, have publicly stated that there are no such sustainability plans on the part of the opposition." (see The dilemma of Venezuela's transition, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/the-dilemma-of-venezuelas-transition.html).
I don't even want to imagine the machinery of underground interests that may have been set in motion to prevent what everyone already takes for granted from happening, to the point that these world-class publications have spoken out in favor of giving the regime a break less than a week before the deadline set by the US. And it is not because I am for or against the proposed solution to the Venezuelan situation, even though Foreign Affairs suggests that through negotiation the Venezuelan opposition has achieved more in these 26 years of miserable torture of an entire people. No!
As a Venezuelan, I am already, like more than 90% of those who voted for MCM on October 22, 2023, in the primaries, and the almost 70% of those who voted for EGU on July 28, 2024, fed up and determined that this situation should not continue. and if something is hanging from a tree at this final crossroads, let it fall, no matter what happens next! And if, as Phil Gunson says, the situation could get worse, damn it, let it! We have been living worse and worse for 26 years! We are already used to “taking things as they come” since our founding as a country! We are not like the Americans, nor like the Europeans, nor even like the rest of our Latin American brothers. We are Venezuelans and we will face whatever comes our way; we are unlike anyone else, and that is precisely why we will emerge victorious!
Caracas, November 23, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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