By Luis Manuel Aguana
A widespread concern of all civil
society demonstrations against what is happening in the country is how we
articulate and channel protests around the world to achieve the critical mass
needed for something to happen in Venezuela.
Many hours have been devoted to the
discussion of how to make the little "tealights" -Maduro dixit- that are taking place all over
the country light up in a real fire and mobilize a whole population that cannot
see the day when the regime of Nicolás Maduro finally ends. However, the regime
has silenced the media and although it is finally known that every day there is
some strong protest about a lack of food, health, water, transport, security,
etc., throughout the country, the general perception is that Venezuela is in a
tense "calm" when in fact it is in a permanent hive.
On a last note in March 2014, which
I published at the time of the full street scuffle of that year. (see in Spanish
Caída inevitable, at http://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2014/03/caida-inevitable.html) said that according to serious research carried out
in relation to the nonviolent struggle against regimes such as the one we
suffer in Venezuela, it was technically concluded that no nonviolent civil
insurrection had failed during the study period (1900-2006) after
the active and constant participation of only 3.5% of the population
had been achieved, and that historically successful insurrections had been
recorded with a much lower percentage than that.
According to the National Institute
of Statistics-INE, we have a projected population of 31.8 million Venezuelans
as of 2018, which would require keeping 1.1 million people on the streets in an
active and constant manner. Those are the internationally proven mathematics of
successful civic protest. In 2014 I thought we could achieve that number on the
streets that year alone. But 4 years of beatings, failures, betrayals, deaths,
persecutions and mass exodus indicate that unfortunately it will be less and
less possible to use the street as the only methodology of struggle, so new
open forms must be implemented, We need to be able to demonstrate in a clear
and intelligent and at the same time forceful way our rejection and repudiation
of this regime, in order to be able to challenge its permanence in power.
On the eve of the next May 1st
mobilization, many organizations will take to the streets in a fair protest
seeking demands that it is impossible for this regime to give, not only because
they destroyed the entire system of life of the population but because they do
not have any alternative way to keep the country afloat without the money of
the oil rent, and that now is insufficient.
This depressing picture will get
into a vicious cycle. The population on the street will protest and their
request will be answered with more violence and repression, returning to the
beginning with more hunger and more misery, which will in turn provoke more
protests.
"Against hunger, misery, corruption and repression" will be the slogan of the unions and other organizations
of the country for May 1st. How many people can be mobilized in Venezuela for
the social protest? Everything indicates that we are in the presence of a
significant increase in social conflict. According to the Venezuelan
Observatory of Social Conflict, protests increased by 40% in one year,
immediately demanding humanitarian cooperation, with February 2018
characterized by "an increase in
labor protests, protests for food and medicine, street closures, rallies and
paralyses as the main forms of protest...". (see in Spanish Conflictividad social en Venezuela en febrero de 2018,
en https://www.observatoriodeconflictos.org.ve/tendencias-de-la-conflictividad/conflictividad-social-en-venezuela-en-febrero-de-2018).
Venezuelans who are committed to the
return to the rule of law, to respect for the Constitution and its observance
(until we can change it for a better one) are obliged to the country to propose
new forms of organization and non-violent struggle. The effective combination
of street protest for unfulfilled demands that by their very nature are
completely dissimilar, with a coherent route of how to solve the country's political
problem could effectively give the articulation required for the sum of all
these protests to constitute that critical mass required to sustain the
international minimum required for the displacement of the regime.
The isolated protests - the
"tealights" that Maduro called - without a glue that gives them a
sense of political unity, will continue to be that, "tealights". But
they all have one thing in common: they are the consequence of a nefarious
economic system imposed by a ruling clique ideologically opposed to the
majority of the country. There is no protest that does not have its origin in
something that this regime has destroyed in its eagerness to impose 21st
Century Socialism on Venezuelans.
A Popular
Consultation that indicates the clear route to displace Nicolás Maduro from
power will add to a single critical mass all the Venezuelans who still remain
in the country, both those who actively protest in the streets and those who do
not for reasons of age, health, security, etc., and that they are the great
majority, giving a clear majority mandate to those who govern us, and a strong
message to the international community that we Venezuelans want change in peace
and democracy, and indicating to those who still hold the popular
representation in the National Assembly that they still owe us a Transitional
Government and National Unity.
Seen in this light, the Popular
Consultation is a formidable tool that should be used by those who are
trying to articulate social protest in its different manifestations, no longer
understanding it as a substitute for it. It is high time we used the channels
of participation that are in the Constitution in support of our cause, before
they cease to exist....
Caracas, April 24, 2018
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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