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Guaidó's second chance

By Luis Manuel Aguana

I highlight this part of my last note of 2019:“If the regime assaults the National Assembly at the point of corruption (which in some way they have already done with the only return to the Chamber of the illegal deputies of the PSUV with the consent of Guaidó-G4/FA), the official opposition would have no other formal way to go but to react in a forceful way and block the departure in defense of the only legitimate power in the country, on pain of disappearing as a collegiate body. The act would provoke an institutional crisis that should end with a declaration of closure of that National Assembly as we know it, giving way to a real opposition resistance, with immediate decisions that would turn the country's course around. That's what should happen, in that case, if they really think about the future of the Venezuelans and basically want to change things... but don't forget that we are dealing with an opposition that wants to cohabit, and it wouldn't be strange if they lost another opportunity to act on everything that was asked of them and they didn't do it in 2019(see Start over, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_938.html).

The above is not a way of saying “I told you so”, but one of the scenarios I outlined as a possibility for January 5, 2020. I confess that I did not expect them to go as far as mounting a cohabitation iron. It is that they were so sure that they would prevent the re-election of Guaidó, that I imagine it was a touch of deliberate contempt to seize the opportunity to defecate in the soul all those who still believe they are facing politicians who dialogue and respect agreements, and not against criminals. Look well, that's what criminals do and that's what happens when you let the enemy into your house. They let the PSUV Deputies into the National Assembly and those are the consequences.

What I am sure of this play now is that it is not just the regime. None of these deputies - unknown until today by Venezuelans - and given their levels on the partisan scale in their respective parties, would act on their own without the endorsement of their political leaders. None of the parties to which the "dissenting" deputies appointed as new Directors of the National Assembly claim to belong have so far said that they are unaware of the actions of these militants. Luis Parra (PJ) President, Franklyn Duarte (COPEI), 1st. Vice President, José Gregorio Noriega (VP), 2nd. Vice President, and Negal Morales (AD), Secretary, are not what we could say the leading line of those parties. How could they have had the initiative to go alone against the Guaidó line and achieve what they achieved? To another asshole with that story.

Without an immediate, firm and forceful declaration of the G4 / FA and Juan Guaidó ignoring the actions of these deputies, we would conclude that they acted in full collusion with their political leaders to give a new respite to the failed management of Juan Guaidó and the G4 / FA, placing them as martyrs of the regime. It is very strange that this platform came out at the last minute without any reaction from a Julio Borges, a Henry Ramos Allup, not even Juan Guaidó himself, given the importance of what was being played there.

On the other hand, as I mentioned last December 31, after what happened Juan Guaidó should give way to a true opposition resistance if it really is true that there is no collusion with that “new Directive”, formally investing as President in Charge, with the support of the opposition deputies who could not exercise their right to vote for a new Directive due to the responsibility of the regime, and formalize a Governing Council to take the necessary steps to displace Maduro and the criminals of the narco regime from power, with the collaboration and the strength of the International Community. That should be the next step after a "coup to parliament" as they have baptized it, carried out by the regime and its accomplices - until now - of the official opposition.

If, on the contrary, we see that the “new Directive” of the Assembly continues to operate without the proven rejection of the official opposition, we would be in the presence of a new deception to Venezuelans and a trick to refloat the image of Juan Guaidó that is in the basement. The first statements of the "new President" of the National Assembly point to the appointment of a CNE for an election. Don't you think that is suspicious?

In any case, seen from the outside, the impasse gives the opportunity - built or not - to the official opposition and to Guaidó to claim against the country. If the regime made the mistake of not waiting for the regulatory quorum, nor letting the Guaidó Directive enter the Parliament to install the National Assembly, it can hardly expect a recognition from the world. The International Community, headed by the United States, has already rejected the regime's show, at the head of Michael G. Kozak, Acting Assistant Secretary for U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs (see https://twitter.com/WHAAsstSecty/status/1213907956955336705) by declaring the entire act as a farce. If what they expected with a new puppet directive of the regime was to negotiate the suspension of sanctions and chimbas elections, the show will not give them that. The Americans continue to recognize Guaidó as President in Charge as the same official says: @Jguaido remains #Venezuela’s interim president under its constitution. This morning’s phony National Assembly session lacked a legal quorum. There was no vote(see https://twitter.com/WHAAsstSecty/status/1213907955466350598).

On the other hand, if the act was the staging of a play between the regime and its opposition, I do not think it will result either. The regime will persist in its puppet and Guaidó Directive, no matter how much it meets and invites as reelected President in a place or in the auditorium of El Nacional, it will not be recognized by Maduro and his criminals. It will be persecuted and the valid Directive of the National Assembly will be for them the one they chose today without quorum and without votes, in a cohabitation fully accepted covertly by the parties of that Directive of G4 / FA militants who came out of nowhere to follow in the business of corruption with the regime as if nothing had happened here. The President in Charge now has the floor and a second chance. It is the opportunity mentioned by former Ambassador Diego Arria (see https://www.facebook.com/103324305197/posts/10162576161790198/). But I will not be as exquisite as my dear friend: Either he puts on the balls and does what he had to do in 2019, or that I quit for someone else to do it. Venezuela can no longer wait for him ...

Caracas, January 5, 2020

Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana (still suspended)

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