By Luis Manuel Aguana
I wouldn't want to fall into the commonplace
of doing end-of-year recounts. I already did those somehow in my last speech at
the beginning of the month at the Cátedra Pío Tamayo (see 2019, a lost year? in
https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_87.html). For those of you who want to see the recounts, I especially recommend
the special program "Agárrate" with Patricia Poleo and Jovel Álvarez
(see in Spanish, Agárrate, Así Transcurrió 2019 en Venezuela, en https://youtu.be/u17DqRHti-s, and following) which is a well-documented film of what politicians did
(or undid) with Venezuela this year that ends today.
I think that the best I can do is dedicate
these lines to comment on the foreseeable future that was left to us as a fact
by the mistakes made - with and without intention - by those who in bad times
still lead the official opposition, to somehow try to answer the same question
that we have asked ourselves during all these years, especially this last 2019
that was particularly hellish: What are we going to do? And since we all have
the certain perception of having lost a year, we have to start over…
Two things are clear to me from the year that
ends today, considering what happened in 2019: a) 2020 will be an electoral
year, whether the opposition -especially the radical one- wants it or not; and
b) the course of political events will be marked by what happens on Sunday,
January 5, 2020, when the leader of the National Assembly is announced. That
will decide whether or not the famous "cessation of usurpation" that
has not been achieved until today will occur.
The first will be conditioned by the second.
If Juan Guaidó and the G4/FA repeat in the Direction of the National Assembly,
what we will have in 2020 will be the second corrected and increased part of
the 2019 horror film. As long as they insist on the same politics, Guaidó will
continue to lose the support of the people, and unless he does something new
and very audacious (which I don't think will happen if he doesn't get it in
2019), it will be difficult for him to recover what he began to lose quickly in
2019, which is nothing more than the confidence of Venezuelans. The mediocre
appointments will continue, adjusted to the wishes of the clientelism of the
majority parties in the Assembly, and the cases of corruption will continue,
with the resources that remain uncontrolled by this interim Executive. This
will improve the electoral account for the criminals of Miraflores.
On the other hand, if the regime has its way
and the legislature is taken away because of votes bought with green suitcases
from unscrupulous opposition deputies (who we will not know how many there will
be until that date), a change in the scenario could eventually emerge. Guaidó
will have to go into exile or be put in jail when he loses his presidential
status. I don't think the regime will miss the opportunity to strike that blow,
but in any case the official opposition would be forced to react. Being outside
the control of the National Assembly, everything achieved so far by the
official opposition will have been lost, including the Agreement governing the
Transition.
Note here that all this is completely
transparent to Venezuelans. The narcoterrorist regime will continue to control
the country as it has done up to now, and we Venezuelans will have seen the
greatest opportunity to recover our freedoms pass by - once again - having had
a National Assembly with an opposition majority for four years without having done
anything to affect our well-being as a people. It
could not be more unforgivable.
But I would ask myself, what good is it to
have control of a National Assembly, which wants to do exactly what the regime
does? That is, to put and remove "in charge" officials and manage the
money that will end up being stolen at the expense of Venezuelans' votes, and
in the process not making the decisions that could determine Maduro's and his
criminals' exit from power. That is what the population would ask when another electoral
event is planned. Hence the importance of the public credibility of those
driving the opposition boat.
At this point you'll ask me: what then? You
want the tiger to eat us! Either way it ends badly! But one is worse than the
other and is not, in my opinion, the opposition option. If the regime assaults
the National Assembly at the point of corruption (which in some way they have
already done with the only return to the Chamber of the illegal deputies of the
PSUV with the consent of Guaidó-G4/FA), the official opposition would have no
other formal way to go but to react in a forceful way and block the departure
in defense of the only legitimate power in the country, on pain of disappearing
as a collegiate body.
The act would provoke an institutional crisis
that should end with a declaration of closure of that National Assembly as we
know it, giving way to a real opposition resistance, with immediate decisions
that would turn the country's course around. That's what should happen, in that
case, if they really think about the future of the Venezuelans and basically
want to change things... but don't forget that we are dealing with an
opposition that wants to cohabit, and it wouldn't be strange if they lost
another opportunity to act on everything that was asked of them and they didn't
do it in 2019.
Returning to the case that G4/FA continue to
lead the National Assembly, we would witness the negotiation by the Rectors of
the CNE for the parliamentary elections of December 2020. If an agreement is
reached by the Rectors of the CNE - not surprisingly - we Venezuelans will be
left with the serious problem of deciding whether or not to participate in this
new farce, with a dedicated opposition without having reached the "end of
the usurpation".
If this agreement is not reached due to
differences between criminals who do not agree on the distribution of the
booty, the regime will throw away land and will not play anymore, naming
another CNE from the TSJ of the ex-convict of Baralt Avenue. There the official
opposition either runs or rises. I think the most decent thing would be not to
participate in that game, but again, I don't think they will. They will
participate with the rules of the regime to keep on cohabiting. If that happens
I just hope I'm wrong and they surprise us.
If the main official opposition parties reach
an electoral agreement with the regime we will have in the eyes of the world a
"valid" parliamentary election like the one in 2015, and that my dear
friends would put a concrete slab in the pit they will dig for us. The world
will look at us like a chicken that sees salt and will say they are Venezuelans
and they understand each other' and will leave us alone. I wish that before
that happens, the fall due to the unfeasibility of the mixture of Castro communism,
drug trafficking and terrorism, with the continued bending of the regime and
its opposition, will swallow both of them giving way to political decency and
consequently to the freedom of Venezuela.
And with this fervent wish I say goodbye to
the year 2019 thanking all my followers for their friendship and loyalty to the
blog of this modest writer during one of the hardest years in the contemporary
history of Venezuela. God bless us all in the year 2020, we are going to need
it...
Caracas, December 31, 2019
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(*)
(*) Note: They tried to hack into my Twitter
@laguana account and the system temporarily suspended it for
"strange" movements. Sorry for the inconvenience. I'm trying to get
it back. If I don't succeed I will inform you by this way which will be the new
account in that social network. Apparently someone didn't like my Innocent Day
note. I'll try to send this year-end note through friendly accounts and I thank
you, if you agree with its content, to forward it through your respective
Twitter accounts to your contacts. My thanks in advance.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario