Suscribete a TICs & Derechos Humanos

Start over

By Luis Manuel Aguana

I wouldn't want to fall into the commonplace of doing end-of-year recounts. I already did those somehow in my last speech at the beginning of the month at the Cátedra Pío Tamayo (see 2019, a lost year? in For those of you who want to see the recounts, I especially recommend the special program "Agárrate" with Patricia Poleo and Jovel Álvarez (see in Spanish, Agárrate, Así Transcurrió 2019 en Venezuela, en, and following) which is a well-documented film of what politicians did (or undid) with Venezuela this year that ends today.

I think that the best I can do is dedicate these lines to comment on the foreseeable future that was left to us as a fact by the mistakes made - with and without intention - by those who in bad times still lead the official opposition, to somehow try to answer the same question that we have asked ourselves during all these years, especially this last 2019 that was particularly hellish: What are we going to do? And since we all have the certain perception of having lost a year, we have to start over…

Two things are clear to me from the year that ends today, considering what happened in 2019: a) 2020 will be an electoral year, whether the opposition -especially the radical one- wants it or not; and b) the course of political events will be marked by what happens on Sunday, January 5, 2020, when the leader of the National Assembly is announced. That will decide whether or not the famous "cessation of usurpation" that has not been achieved until today will occur.

The first will be conditioned by the second. If Juan Guaidó and the G4/FA repeat in the Direction of the National Assembly, what we will have in 2020 will be the second corrected and increased part of the 2019 horror film. As long as they insist on the same politics, Guaidó will continue to lose the support of the people, and unless he does something new and very audacious (which I don't think will happen if he doesn't get it in 2019), it will be difficult for him to recover what he began to lose quickly in 2019, which is nothing more than the confidence of Venezuelans. The mediocre appointments will continue, adjusted to the wishes of the clientelism of the majority parties in the Assembly, and the cases of corruption will continue, with the resources that remain uncontrolled by this interim Executive. This will improve the electoral account for the criminals of Miraflores.

On the other hand, if the regime has its way and the legislature is taken away because of votes bought with green suitcases from unscrupulous opposition deputies (who we will not know how many there will be until that date), a change in the scenario could eventually emerge. Guaidó will have to go into exile or be put in jail when he loses his presidential status. I don't think the regime will miss the opportunity to strike that blow, but in any case the official opposition would be forced to react. Being outside the control of the National Assembly, everything achieved so far by the official opposition will have been lost, including the Agreement governing the Transition.

Note here that all this is completely transparent to Venezuelans. The narcoterrorist regime will continue to control the country as it has done up to now, and we Venezuelans will have seen the greatest opportunity to recover our freedoms pass by - once again - having had a National Assembly with an opposition majority for four years without having done anything to affect our well-being as a people. It could not be more unforgivable.

But I would ask myself, what good is it to have control of a National Assembly, which wants to do exactly what the regime does? That is, to put and remove "in charge" officials and manage the money that will end up being stolen at the expense of Venezuelans' votes, and in the process not making the decisions that could determine Maduro's and his criminals' exit from power. That is what the population would ask when another electoral event is planned. Hence the importance of the public credibility of those driving the opposition boat.

At this point you'll ask me: what then? You want the tiger to eat us! Either way it ends badly! But one is worse than the other and is not, in my opinion, the opposition option. If the regime assaults the National Assembly at the point of corruption (which in some way they have already done with the only return to the Chamber of the illegal deputies of the PSUV with the consent of Guaidó-G4/FA), the official opposition would have no other formal way to go but to react in a forceful way and block the departure in defense of the only legitimate power in the country, on pain of disappearing as a collegiate body.

The act would provoke an institutional crisis that should end with a declaration of closure of that National Assembly as we know it, giving way to a real opposition resistance, with immediate decisions that would turn the country's course around. That's what should happen, in that case, if they really think about the future of the Venezuelans and basically want to change things... but don't forget that we are dealing with an opposition that wants to cohabit, and it wouldn't be strange if they lost another opportunity to act on everything that was asked of them and they didn't do it in 2019.

Returning to the case that G4/FA continue to lead the National Assembly, we would witness the negotiation by the Rectors of the CNE for the parliamentary elections of December 2020. If an agreement is reached by the Rectors of the CNE - not surprisingly - we Venezuelans will be left with the serious problem of deciding whether or not to participate in this new farce, with a dedicated opposition without having reached the "end of the usurpation".

If this agreement is not reached due to differences between criminals who do not agree on the distribution of the booty, the regime will throw away land and will not play anymore, naming another CNE from the TSJ of the ex-convict of Baralt Avenue. There the official opposition either runs or rises. I think the most decent thing would be not to participate in that game, but again, I don't think they will. They will participate with the rules of the regime to keep on cohabiting. If that happens I just hope I'm wrong and they surprise us.

If the main official opposition parties reach an electoral agreement with the regime we will have in the eyes of the world a "valid" parliamentary election like the one in 2015, and that my dear friends would put a concrete slab in the pit they will dig for us. The world will look at us like a chicken that sees salt and will say they are Venezuelans and they understand each other' and will leave us alone. I wish that before that happens, the fall due to the unfeasibility of the mixture of Castro communism, drug trafficking and terrorism, with the continued bending of the regime and its opposition, will swallow both of them giving way to political decency and consequently to the freedom of Venezuela.

And with this fervent wish I say goodbye to the year 2019 thanking all my followers for their friendship and loyalty to the blog of this modest writer during one of the hardest years in the contemporary history of Venezuela. God bless us all in the year 2020, we are going to need it...

Caracas, December 31, 2019

Twitter:@laguana (*)

(*) Note: They tried to hack into my Twitter @laguana account and the system temporarily suspended it for "strange" movements. Sorry for the inconvenience. I'm trying to get it back. If I don't succeed I will inform you by this way which will be the new account in that social network. Apparently someone didn't like my Innocent Day note. I'll try to send this year-end note through friendly accounts and I thank you, if you agree with its content, to forward it through your respective Twitter accounts to your contacts. My thanks in advance.

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