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And after Guaidó, what?

By Luis Manuel Aguana

It's an immediate question impossible to avoid. It is not possible to request the resignation of President Juan Guaidó, as I did in my last note (see President Guaidó, go in peace, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/president-guaido-go-in-peace.html) without saying what would have to come next. This request for resignation should not come as a surprise to those of us who, like the rest of Venezuelans, have witnessed the collapse of his presidency after the corruption scandals carried out by his immediate collaborators and now, unfortunately, by his direct relatives according to the denunciations made to his father and brother (see denunciations in Spanish in https://www.lechuguinos.com/padre-guaido-adquirio-taxis-espana/ y http://www.redpres.com/t34758-investigan-en-espana-a-hermano-de-juan-guaido-por-corrupcion-en-el-caso-odebrecht).

Venezuela turns out to be the only country in the world where, in the face of allegations of corruption, officials do not give explanations of any kind and instead of giving all the space for the facts to be investigated, on the contrary they hide behind their condition, screwing themselves even more into their positions. In any other country, officials in similar situations resign without being requested to do so. That's why I've been struck by the reaction of some prominent figures in social networks virulently insulting the request for resignation, indicating that without Guaidó the Republic falls, words more, words less. And I ask myself, if at this point to get out of the very serious problem that Venezuela is going through we depend on one person, we are extremely bad.

Guaidó arrived there in well-known political circumstances, which should have begun on July 16, 2017 with the majority vote of Venezuelans in the popular consultation of that date. Unfortunately, our political leadership disregarded that mandate, delaying for two years the imposition of a legitimate President due to a circumstance that occurred when the regime advanced the corresponding elections by the end of 2018. And my question is, what if Maduro had not advanced them, would Juan Guaidó exist? On the contrary, we would have Maduro "legitimately" installed in Miraflores with the votes of Tiby's arranged roulette in the CNE. That's another reason to say, as I said before, that the problem is not, nor is it still Juan Guaidó.

The President in Charge should separate from the position to open the game to other forces. If the deputies insist on this unconstitutional Statute of Transition, the regime will continue to advance. Fundamentally, the resignation of Juan Guaidó as President in Charge would put the game as it was before January 23, 2019, but with a difference. It would give the National Assembly the opportunity to choose very carefully who should lead what I have called a Crisis Command, and place Guaidó's successor, accompanied by the most lucid Venezuelans and representatives of civil society, in the position of "President in Charge according to Article 233," with indisputable ethics and morals. A "dream team", in the most important chosen areas.

Guaidó's successor would not necessarily have to be a deputy of the National Assembly, but if it must, of course, be agreed by her in a legitimate manner, as was done in 1993 with Ramón J Velásquez, as explained in a previous note (see The problem is not Guaidó, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_43.html). This team should be chosen and sworn in, and then immediately leave the country and begin a struggle with renewed strength to expel the regime, by whatever means chosen between them and the International Community. I am not proposing a Government in Exile because this group WOULD NOT HAVE GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS as we know them, which would be restricted to those necessary for the recovery of Venezuela. Their functions would be limited ONLY and EXCLUSIVELY to achieving as their main objective the expulsion of the regime, but with the legitimacy that all Venezuelans would give them.

Given the certain possibility that the regime recovers the Directive of the National Assembly at the tip of green suitcases, the only legitimate power recognized internationally, the exit can not be "repeat" Juan Guaido, but to block the game with an unexpected play, recovering the credibility of Venezuelans. But they won't. Corruption has tied their hands. The previous proposal is nothing more than what my tormented imagination would want to happen, if the politicians of that National Assembly were really hurt by the situation of millions of Venezuelans and were thinking about the country and not about their own pockets or political interests, crudely speaking.

In fact, nothing would have prevented them from doing exactly the same thing after January 23, 2019. But they did something else. And now they intend to make the sequel to the same film with the same protagonist, even though the Americans have warned them to support institutions and not people (see Statements in Spanish by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Michael Kozak https://www.elimpulso.com/2019/12/06/video-michael-kozak-nuestro-apoyo-ha-sido-a-las-instituciones-democraticas-no-a-guaido-como-persona-6dic/).

In other words, after the failure of Juan Guaidó's credibility as effectively revealed by the recent Meganálisis survey (see in Spanish Meganalysis Survey November and December 2019, in https://es.scribd.com/document/438271580/Encuesta-Meganalisis-Noviembre-y-Diciembre-2019-Ver-publicacion), where to the question "After 10 months, do you still believe, trust and support Juan Guaidó?", 68.5% answered NO (I no longer believe, trust and support Guaidó) and 12.9% said they never believed, trusted or supported Guaidó. If with a balance of 68.5% + 12.9% = 81.4% of Venezuelans that by December 2019, they express NO CONFIDENCE in the President in Charge, in which opposition head should we insist on the same thing next year? Well, those who intend to continue in cohabitation and negotiation with the money of the Republic.

All this without taking into account that if there was no "cessation of usurpation" in a year in which it could well be said that conditions were optimal like 2019, why would Venezuelans think that next year would be better, in the worst conditions of the credibility of political leadership? Even more so if to the above we add as an ending the question of Meganálisis: "You trust and support the National Assembly (AN) with an opposition majority, and which was elected in December 2015...", where 85.3% answered NO.
This puts us in a very difficult scenario for Venezuelans where there is a very high probability that the official opposition parties will participate in electoral processes with the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, in a clear flight forward, without having materialized the "cessation of usurpation", with an CNE agreed as a whole, and without a substantive change in the electoral conditions. We Venezuelans will then find ourselves in the situation of repudiating the official cohabitant opposition, breaking openly with it, which would open the opportunity for other political actors to emerge that truly represent the feelings of Venezuelans and oppose in a public and forceful manner all those cohabitation maneuvers, giving a definitive step of rupture with the official opposition "status quo".

But the most important question we should ask ourselves then will be: will we participate in a new electoral farce knowing that it is part of an agreement among the most corrupt that has taken over Venezuela? And on the other hand, would all Venezuelans make common cause so that this rupture - which will necessarily have to come with Juan Guaidó and his associates of corruption - on the part of honorable factors of society - who refuse to continue playing the game to the official opposition in order to continue cohabiting - materializes a political support capable of changing the course of events? Wouldn't this be the moment to demand a Popular Plebiscite Consultation so that it would be the Venezuelan people who decide?

The answers to these questions will only be available to Venezuelans at the last minute - as is our cultural way of resolving things - when, with water around our necks, we are faced with the imperative need to decide sincerely and in the eyes of the whole world whether we want to be slaves of a totalitarian socialist regime or citizens of a free society. That will only depend on us...

Caracas, December 10, 2019

Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana


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