By Luis Manuel Aguana
It is not possible to enter into a
serious analysis of what happened yesterday, April 30, 2019, without first
going through the experience we had on February 23, where all Venezuelans
expected the massive breakdown of the Armed Forces, the product of that mantra
we repeated at that time: "humanitarian aid enters Venezuela yes or yes".
Once again, the long awaited breakdown of the Armed Forces did not take place
as expected, although a significant advance in that sense occurred throughout
the country. More soldiers appeared recognizing the government of President
Juan Guaidó, but not in the critical mass necessary to forcefully displace the
regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros.
And we say that this case cannot be
analyzed without strolling through the 23F because the entire opposition
strategy to achieve the Cessation of Usurpation is based on laying all the eggs
of change in the basket of the collapse of the Armed Forces of a regime that,
for reasons of nature and construction, can never be part of a democratic
government because in fact, in itself, these ceased to be what they were,
transmuting into a praetorian armed militia of a mafia of narcos and
terrorists. Trying to use the same scale to measure career and professional
military, comparing them to criminals makes no sense at all.
In an article published by
journalist Orlando Avendaño in PanamPost (see in Spanish La peligrosa fantasía
del quiebre militar y sus promotores, in https://es.panampost.com/orlando-avendano/2019/04/18/el-quiebre-militar/?cn-reloaded=1), it is clearly established that the President in
Charge Guaidó was waiting for military promises from former members of Chavismo
for a break that never arrived:
"I
remember, on the morning of that 23 February, seeing the retired major general
of the Army, a former member of the Chavista regime, Clíver Alcalá Cordones. I
met him, in the investigation for Days of Submission, several months ago. He
did not generate confidence in me, although he now poses as a dissident. But
there I was, in Cúcuta, guiding several soldiers who had just deserted the
border. Clíver, in a way, commanded them. Next to him was Major Parra, an
officer who had just fled Venezuela. Within hours, Parra met with President
Juan Guaidó and other military personnel in a building in Tienditas”.
Also the journalist Avendaño points
out in his article something that has repeated the same Cliver Alcalá, which
apparently has convinced Guaidó, and that I believe is what has us all parked
at this time in the worst of situations: "There is no need for an
international coalition. The Armed Force itself can get Maduro out. That could
be an important way out in Venezuela. And not only the Armed Force internally,
but the Armed Force deployed throughout the world”.
Well, the dissident Armed Force
itself CANNOT REMOVE MADURO on April 30. And why do you think it couldn't?
Because Maduro is NOT A GOVERNMENT from the conventional point of view. It is a
criminal mafia embedded in power in Venezuela, where anyone who defects puts
his life and that of his family in grave danger. No matter how many promises
could have been made by "Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, General
Ivan Hernandez Dala (Director of Military Intelligence DGCIM) and the president
of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), Maikel Moreno," as revealed in an
interview by John Bolton, U.S. National Security Advisor (see in Spanish Bolton:
Padrino Lopez y Maikel Moreno acordaron supuesta salida de Maduro, en https://talcualdigital.com/index.php/2019/04/30/bolton-padrino-lopez-y-maikel-moreno-acordaron-supuesta-salida-de-maduro/), it was natural that those characters would turn
back at the last minute, compromising an operation that could even cost the
life of Juan Guaidó and the rest of those who accompanied him in La Carlota on
April 30. It still amazes me how these
boys dare to put their lives in the hands of such characters as those who betrayed
them on 23F.
I have insisted and I will continue
to insist that this is not about getting people out on the street, in a sort of
historic popular gesture that expels the usurper. It is clear that popular
support in the street is important, but that is not what this is about. The
popular mass in the streets in permanent protest is a necessary but not
sufficient condition. Regimes like these only fall with the force of arms, not
with anything else. And we are at the point where armed brute force is required
to move these criminals from power.
A negotiation with those who hold
that mafia -which would be the only way to get Maduro out of power- compromises
in a superlative way the stability of any future government, because it would
be putting itself in the hands of criminals long before beginning its
administration. It is as if Don Corleone were dead, the new capo would have to
be put in the hands of Tesio and Clemenza, naively believing that he will not
be assassinated around the corner. If you don't understand that you have to
sweep away the whole mafia to govern, you haven't fully understood the problem.
But at this hour the mistakes that
had to be made were already made and we are in a different stadium. Steps have
already been taken that cannot be taken and progress has indeed been made, but
the Cessation of Usurpation has not been completed. At this point it is clear
that Juan Guaidó and his team hardly took this transcendental step with the
help of the U.S. government and are possibly on the verge of making another big
mistake: negotiating with the terrorists. In fact, they had already begun to do
so with Padrino López, Hernández Dalá and Moreno, at the request of the
Americans. Were these characters going to leave the scene with their real
stolen and free? Or would they continue in the exercise of their positions in
that repugnant logic of the "authoritarian enclaves" of the old
regime of Henry Ramos Allup, as we have already commented in past notes?
Whatever the case may have been, the
power structures would be subject to negotiation about which no one would know
their scope; and the transitional government would begin crooked, and committed
to criminals.
Still Maduro's regime is very weak and they know it.
The televised meeting of the usurper with his military was a poem. Seeing the
faces of those soldiers made them want to cry. I think this is the best time to
apply the International Community's Responsibility to Protect (R2P) to help
Venezuelans and end the humanitarian tragedy and crimes against humanity. What
more demonstration from the Venezuelan people than the one on April 30? No more
options on the table.
Caracas, May 1, 2019
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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