To the Liberator Simón Bolívar, 193 years after his death, who was clear about the interests of the Venezuelans for whom he fought and died...
The decision of María Corina Machado (MCM) and her team of close advisors, in concluding that the most convenient thing to do was to go to the TSJ controlled by the Maduro regime, in the period of time imposed by them, to present her allegations in relation to an illegally imposed disqualification, with the approval of the US government (see tweet of @usembassyve Aplaudimos a MCM…, in https://twitter.com/usembassyve/status/1735748536019333157), brought to my memory the same support that the US gave, and that Venezuelans also applauded, to Juan Guaidó and his interim government for 4 long years without any result, until there was nothing and no one to support.
If MCM, after having told the country that he would not put himself in the hands of the justice of the Maduro regime, changed his mind on the advice of the Biden administration, I imagine that it could only be because of one thing: that if after the regime ratifies through its TSJ, under any possible and abusive argumentation, the disqualification of MCM, the US government will decide to restore the sanctions to the Maduro regime, considering other measures to force the participation of MCM in the elections of 2024, with the full guarantee of the US government.
I say all this because after hearing MCM's statement after leaving the illegitimate TSJ on Baralt Avenue, it seems that the seriousness of this problem has not been fully understood: "And we are not going to give this regime a single excuse to get out of the electoral route. We are not going to get out of the electoral route and they are not going to be able to get out of the electoral route. Maduro and his regime will not be able to get out of the electoral route. They are going to have to comply with their agreements and with the will of all Venezuelans...". (see in Spanish MCM Statement, in https://youtu.be/EByn-evRpHY?t=53).
Where does MCM and his team get that the regime wants to get out of the electoral route? The regime is not interested in getting out of the electoral route, especially after Maduro's failure in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. But what the regime is interested in is an electoral route WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF MCM. The regime wants to go to elections only with the broken bats it is interested in, and they are still maneuvering, openly or covertly, so that MCM does not participate in the elections.
Neither Rosales, nor Capriles, nor Superlano, nor Prosperi, nor the whole constellation of possible candidates, each one of them exceed 5% in the polls. That is why they set up that racket of the TSJ's Barbados proposal, with the little help of Gerardo Blyde, to filter out those they wish. This makes the 10% or less that the regime has in the polls look like a surplus in any election, making its victory credible in the eyes of the world. And that is what continues to operate despite the fact that Venezuelans elected on October 22 an opposition representative for 2024.
It is clear that MCM should not do anything that implies that she does not want a peaceful, democratic, and electoral solution to the country's crisis. But what he cannot ignore is that we Venezuelans are ALONE in this disgrace. The US only responds to its geopolitical interests, and I wish to suppose that a decision of the TSJ of the regime against the participation of the MCM in the elections of 2024, will unleash in the US by its government some reactions that will force the regime to measure itself with the true representative of the Venezuelan opposition, elected on October 22. It cannot be understood otherwise that MCM has gone to the illegitimate TSJ to "wait for justice" from the regime.
But if the U.S. respects the decisions of the Judiciary of the Maduro regime, no matter how absurd they may be, as it is eventually possible -and because diplomatically nothing else can happen- then we must assume that this country will also decide accordingly that the electoral route with a regime like the one existing in Venezuela cannot operate because the true opposition of the country will not be duly represented in the elections, ruling out any recognition of the outcome of those elections.
There was no important step taken by the PU-MUD, Juan Guaidó and the interim, without consulting with the US Ambassador to Venezuela based in Bogota. Was there any guarantee of subsequent support for those decisions? I don't know, but the permanent line of the official opposition always went through that office, and although the final decisions ended up being in the hands of Venezuelans, the results are there for all to see: a total failure, so we are still in the hands of tyranny. That is why on October 22 the opposition decided to have a different opposition leadership, burying the old opposition, and that a new one with independent criteria should emerge, capable of discerning a winning path, regardless of the opinion of whoever, even if it was the US itself.
At this point, we do not know if the Biden administration is capable of burning MCM in favor of its oil interests with the regime, clearly demonstrated when they went over the head of the Interim Government by talking directly with Maduro, or if they really want Venezuela to recover its democracy to become a reliable energy ally but sovereign in its decisions.
Either of the two ways is equally valid for them, geopolitically speaking, but very different in the face of our welfare as Venezuelans. What has to happen for them to be interested in the latter and not in the former? The worst thing that our opposition representation can do is to trust blindly, having to work to achieve guarantees in favor of our own interests, to get out of the regime as soon as possible, even knowing that the Americans are completely neutral about what happens to us, even if there are 8 million Venezuelan migrants in the continent.
For example, is it convenient for the U.S. and its interests in that country that Venezuelans recover the Essequibo territory? The first thing that comes to my mind is that this is not their problem, it is ours. In the light of those who are exploiting oil there, perhaps the interests of the ExxonMobil consortium, with strong US participation, are better protected in a government like that of Guyana, a member of the British Commonwealth, than with an unstable socialist regime.
What advice do you think the U.S. would give us in the face of this problem? Think about it. That does not mean that they wish us ill, what it means is that we must know how to differentiate where the interests of those who say they are with you are going and why. Knowing that makes the difference between success and failure. Hopefully this tactic of MCM and her team with the TSJ will not end in a mistake made at the behest of the US. It would be sad to return to the recent past of the interim. If anything, it would be a lesson in our already bumpy road to freedom. I hope we will not be taken for assholes again...
Caracas, December 17, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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