I did not want to stop writing this note that I was planning to publish after the National Primary Commission (CNP) gave its last report on the primaries of last Sunday, October 22. Unfortunately, after more than 24 hours of the election day, we know the first bulletin published in the X account (formerly Twitter) of the CNP (@cnprimariave), announcing at 12:35pm today October 23, 2023, that they have only managed to total 26, 06% of the votes, which represents, according to the bulletin, 1,338 actas and 601,110 votes. According to that, María Corina Machado (MCM) took 93.13% of the votes of that tally with 552,430, announcing to be the undisputed winner of that process (see in Spanish @cnprimariave, in https://twitter.com/cnprimariave/status/1716312419260105177).
Although, strictly speaking, the serious and correct thing to do would be to wait for an additional or final bulletin from the CNP to make any analysis of what happened, everything indicates that these counts and percentages are not going to change substantially, considering the overwhelming difference between the first and second place, which according to the published bulletin, only reached 4.75% of the votes counted, therefore, from this point on, I will consider for all purposes of this note the uncontested triumph of MCM in the opposition primaries.
As of today, the game of the opposition against the regime has changed. The official opposition, after yesterday's measurement, can no longer consider itself the representative of the Venezuelan people. It cannot even represent a minimum part of it. The Venezuelan opposition people gave yesterday, October 22, 2023, its unquestionable representation with the votes to MCM, regardless of whether the regime accepts her as presidential candidate or not (that is another dimension that we will address). So, if there is any presidential election in 2024 where MCM's name does not appear, that presidential election will be as illegitimate as the one of May 2018.
The Venezuelan people demonstrated their desire to solve the problem of the regime in peace, and that the official opposition should step aside to solve it. The significance of this message is that the status quo parties that have so far led the political direction of the struggle against the regime, should step aside and finally understand that it is not by cohabiting with a tyranny that has destroyed the Venezuelan family, separating it and making Venezuela a miserable country in moral terms, that we will be able to solve the misfortune that has consumed us. Yesterday, Venezuelans took the first step to begin to leave the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, handing over the genuine political representation to the person they perceive represents their interests.
The whole world contemplated in the 4 cardinal directions of the planet, and up to where all Venezuelans have arrived as a result of the massive exodus caused by a starving regime, the democratic vocation of Venezuelans. He contemplated that regardless of the hardships, the breakdown of family unity, the inhuman and cruel xenophobia that has been applied to us, even in countries whose citizens we sheltered in the past, that we desire a better country and that we are working to return to it. I contemplate that we do not want to stay where they do not want us, but to return to build on the ruins that they leave us. We leave the whole world moved!
But this task will not be easy without the sincere help of those countries. Yesterday we took the first step by putting in other hands the political leadership of the opposition, MCM's main objective at the beginning of this feat, which will only be ended by the same people who voted for it at the polls yesterday.
It is clear that the regime will not tolerate competing with someone whom it will hardly be able to cheat. It is one thing for the CNE to give the regime 200,000 extra artificial votes, as they did with Henrique Capriles Radonski in 2013, and to have an opposition candidate without enough courage to defend a victory that was not his, but of the Venezuelan people, and quite another to do it with an opposition candidate who gets more than 90% in the primaries and who multiplies by a factor of 4 the numbers of the regime, and who is willing to march to the CNE to verify the votes.
So, how will she compete? That is no longer decided by Maduro, nor by his horde of criminals. That decision is outside Venezuela. The Agreement signed with the regime, and that as indicated in my previous note (see The covered rooster of an electoral agreement,in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/the-covered-rooster-of-electoral.html), puts it between a rock and a hard place, it determines that they will have to measure themselves under the conditions established there, regardless of how they interpret the Constitution, because now the guarantor is the US.
The regime is heading for an implosion, without money, without popular support and most seriously, with more internal confrontations than ever for survival. The U.S. opened an oxygen supply for six months that will be blocked if they do not comply. And the only guarantee they have for regional and continental security to keep the presence of Middle East terrorists out of Latin America, is that there is a democratic government in Venezuela. And that guarantee is now only in the hands of MCM.
The planets are aligned at this moment so that the regime has no choice but to accept the conditions they signed or become Nicaragua as its most conspicuous radicals such as Rodriguez or Cabello have threatened. But one thing is Nicaragua, which according to the World Bank depends on light industry, services and agriculture (see The World Bank in Nicaragua, in https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/nicaragua/overview), and a Venezuela with the largest oil reserves in the world, coveted by all powers, and which can decide the energy destiny of a Europe besieged by terrorism and the probability of war. It is in everyone's interest to have a Venezuela that recovers democracy and freedom, and it is in no one's interest to have a Venezuela controlled by terrorists.
If Venezuelans keep firm that determination to recover our country, as we demonstrated last Sunday, protecting that hope, October 22 will be the first day of a new beginning...
Caracas, October 23, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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