By Luis Manuel Aguana
“Politics makes strange bedfellows”. I learned that phrase from one of the best political analysts I’ve ever known and a unique mentor in electoral systems, Eric Ekvall (see in Spanish, Farewell Eric in http://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2013/11/farewell-eric.html).
How is it possible that there is an exact alignment between the interests of the opposition and those of the regime regarding the call for “elections now”—a move that runs counter to the plans the Trump administration is currently executing in Venezuela to dismantle the regime? As Eric put it, the two are in bed together, and we must pinpoint exactly why.
In the current political equation, there are three very important variables:
On one hand, what remains of a regime intent on surviving the cataclysm of January 3rd has followed the Trump administration’s instructions to gradually dismantle the power structure of Castro-Chavismo-Madurismo—albeit not at the pace demanded by the Venezuelan people—by doing precisely what they do best: stalling for time. Everything they do—including prolonging the illegitimate interim tenure of Delcy Rodríguez for as long as humanly possible—will be aimed at buying time. Yet, as time passes, the “Rodrigato”—acting under the orders of Venezuela’s de facto regent in the White House—continues to lose ground; eventually, they will reach a point where they lack the maneuvering room necessary to survive. They will require “elections” as soon as possible—the kind we have grown accustomed to since 2004—in order to legitimize their hold on power in the eyes of the world.
On the other hand, there is an opposition that has failed to consolidate its rise to power—despite having won elections in 2024—and that appears in a great hurry to do so; yet, this haste stems not precisely from a desire to solve our problems, but rather from a need for its own political survival. You might argue that such an accusation is harsh and cynical, but it is merely a matter of *realpolitik*. Regardless of who happens to be at the helm of the opposition, the passage of time inevitably leads to political attrition. This is precisely what happened to the MUD in its dealings with María Corina Machado (MCM). And the only way for a politician to survive the wear and tear inflicted by time—specifically the toll exacted by having failed, year after year, to achieve their objective—is to actually ascend to power. Otherwise, time becomes their worst enemy. They, too, are in need of "elections"—driven by the belief (which, in my view, is mistaken—as we shall see later in this piece) that they can simply "replicate" the outcome of July 28, 2024.
However, the third and most critical variable is the grave economic situation—which could just as aptly be described as a psychological state of utter weariness—afflicting the Venezuelan people. This situation is driven by the urgent need for an immediate improvement in our living conditions—conditions which, as we have known for nearly 30 years, are the direct result of the political system imposed upon Venezuela by the tyranny of Hugo Chávez Frías, and subsequently inherited by Nicolás Maduro Moros.
These three variables within the Venezuelan political equation have converged to create a call for elections that is impossible to ignore; yet, at its core, this call proves both deceptive and dangerous for a population that is desperate to see things change in their country.
And why is it deceptive and dangerous? Because, should it prove successful, we Venezuelans would effectively be providing the greatest possible assistance to the regime of Delcy Rodríguez—helping it to remain firmly entrenched in power.
Holding elections without first dismantling the three principal structures that prop up the regime—the very regime Nicolás Maduro Moros established to perpetuate himself in power—will result in the continuation of the tyranny that we in Venezuela have endured since 1999.
And what are these three structures? The Armed Forces, the Electoral Branch, and the Judicial Branch of the regime. I do not include the Legislative Branch or the Civic Branch, as they are rendered worthless without the other three; moreover, to date, they have merely carried out every order issued to them from Washington—orders channeled through an Executive Branch currently under the control of a puppet interim government. Nevertheless, they have followed these orders entirely on their own terms. They have failed to release all civilian and military political prisoners, as they were instructed to do. Instead, they are releasing them in dribs and drabs—precisely because they recognize the critical importance of maintaining a grip on power that they sense is slipping away with the passage of time.
To hold elections today—without first intervening in and dismantling those three structures that serve as the strongest and most fundamental pillars supporting what remains of Nicolás Maduro Moros’s regime (MOST ESPECIALLY THE ELECTORAL BRANCH)—would amount to the most appalling act of "self-destruction" that we Venezuelans could possibly commit.
The aforementioned interests of both the regime and the opposition are currently converging; both sides are exploiting the dire plight of the Venezuelan people to push through an electoral process before the plan initiated by the United States—specifically, the removal of Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife—has reached its conclusion. Furthermore, they are employing tactics of street-level pressure to compel President Trump and his administration to accelerate a process that, by its very nature, cannot be accelerated. Such actions could very well derail the United States’ three-phase plan; indeed, it is patently obvious that there are individuals—both within the United States and in Venezuela—who are actively betting on the failure of that plan, driven by political agendas in both nations.
The dismantling of the Armed Forces has successfully begun—regardless of the fact that we may not have liked the individuals carrying it out. However, the structure of political repression remains intact and undismantled. Do you really believe that Trump and Rubio are unaware of the presence there of the individuals most responsible for human rights crimes in Venezuela? Yet, that structure is by no means easy to dismantle simply by replacing the Minister of Defense; furthermore, certain decisions have yet to be made in the U.S.—decisions that may or may not take an indeterminate amount of time. Once that situation is resolved, the pace of events in Venezuela will shift significantly.
This entire scenario bears a resemblance that I find impossible not to mention: the situation that arose in early 2013, when the death of Hugo Chávez Frías in Cuba was public knowledge—though not yet officially confirmed. Allowing for the obvious differences, this is essentially the same dynamic playing out right now. The public—much like today—was filled with hope following the tyrant's demise; yet, the opposition's response was to agree to participate in an election after the surviving regime, via a nationwide broadcast, put forward the man Chávez had designated as his successor: Nicolás Maduro Moros. Who could have possibly predicted that our candidate, Henrique Capriles, would lose that election to such an obscure figure? No one!
Capriles had "lost" the elections in December 2012—albeit by a very narrow margin. No one truly believed the result, yet the opposition accepted it—as did Capriles himself. The Venezuelan people swallowed it as well, largely because it meant losing to Chávez—a figure whose public image, even while he was ailing, remained virtually unbeatable. But defeating Maduro? That was supposed to be a sure thing—a slam dunk.
That's what people believe about María Corina Machado's candidacy. It would be a sure thing to beat Delcy Rodríguez. Why not hold elections with her immediately? So the decision they've made is to force them both inside and outside the country.
But what isn't immediately apparent is that the regime's support structure was intact in 2013. And it still is, though weakened and incomplete reconstruction. Therefore, it's imperative for what remains of the regime to hold elections against the best opposition candidate. MCM would "lose" to Delcy Rodríguez, just as Capriles "lost" to Maduro in 2013, perhaps even by the same narrow margin. What would happen next is that the CNE's "transparent" electoral system would convince the international community, as it did in 2013, that the tally sheets reflected the numbers the regime had carefully fabricated.
And what would the US do? Absolutely nothing. They would recognize that government, legitimized after the “election” of Delcy Rodríguez, without caring at all what happens to us Venezuelans. If they are now dismantling the institutions of the tyranny, and in the middle of the process “the Venezuelan people legitimately decide” to hold elections before the work of dismantling the Maduro regime is finished, who are they to interfere?
Do you think I'm being pessimistic? Some will find it a dystopian and bizarre future. But it already happened to us in 2013, and we don't remember it. We were euphoric because we had a candidate who couldn't lose the election to an unknown. But he lost, not to Maduro. He lost to a superstructure that still exists in 2026. That's what's behind all this. If there is no intervention in the Electoral Power, as I discussed in my previous note, there will be no guarantee of preserving sovereignty in the hands of the Venezuelan people (see Electoral Intervention: Guarantee of Sovereignty, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/electoral-intervention-guarantee-of.html).
For over 15 years, I have stubbornly explained in this space the electoral infrastructure of the regime designed to win elections. It's an extraordinarily well-oiled machine for achieving that goal, regardless of who the candidates are. And yet the opposition still insists they will win “just with witnesses” because they supposedly did so in July 2024. A vain and deceptive illusion.
In the series of programs titled “Sovereign Elections 202X” on the YouTube channel Sin Filtros (Without Filters), we are analyzing in detail that this is not only a technical fraud perpetrated against the Venezuelan people, but an entire structure that must be dismantled before holding elections. This includes the opposition's fallacy of shouting this illusion of witnesses to the Venezuelan people, to convince us to go to another electoral slaughterhouse. I invite you to watch the first program titled “SOVEREIGN ELECTIONS IN VENEZUELA? The FRAUD and the Capture of the State” (see in Spanish, Maibort Petit, Sin Filtros, in https://www.youtube.com/live/QIxjzaQ-Xy4?si=DQvFtdtflAR7oXwB). The second episode of the series will be published very soon.
I do not know when the U.S. will be able to complete the task of dismantling the Rodríguez regime—thereby paving the way for truly authentic elections—nor do I even know if they are interested in relinquishing sovereignty back to us. But what I do know is that the regime will not allow that to happen as long as they still control the power-sustaining infrastructure described earlier. The most constructive role the opposition could play right now is to act as a catalyst to accelerate the execution of the phases of the Trump-Rubio plan—specifically to ensure the dismantling of the regime’s power structures, particularly the electoral apparatus, before proceeding to any elections. If they fail to do so, they serve instead as a hindrance and a danger to the Venezuelan people. If they do not grasp this reality, they are unlikely to ever attain power...
Caracas, April 12, 2026
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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