Every time an opposition leader says that the regime “is weaker than
ever”, that “it is fallen”, when reality seems to prove the opposite, I ask
myself: on what facts do they base such statement? Or is it that there are
realities that only they know, that allow them to make such assertions? Or is
it rather that they think that the rest of us mortals can only believe in order
not to somehow lose hope that things can still change, based on a trust placed
in the two key dates of the opposition, October 22, 2023 and July 28, 2024.
But the inevitable next question would be: and how long can that last? But even that confidence is not unlimited, no matter how high it has proven to be so far. Hence, it is necessary to keep on paying for it with small victories, until the final victory is achieved. But if these small victories are also difficult, something else is required to keep the balls of people's confidence in the air, just as a juggler would do.
The “small victory” of the escape of the hostages from the Argentine
embassy -which may well be considered a great victory from the perspective of
Human Rights and the courageous struggle of Venezuelans- was of great help to
the opposition to raise the spirits and morale of the citizens, that actions
can still be taken against the regime, to maintain the confidence that it is
possible to go “all the way”.
However, to the extent that “small victories” are distanced from each
other, confidence naturally erodes, requiring a strategy that goes beyond
saying every day that the regime “is weak” and “will fall tomorrow”, just
because the opposition claims so (unless, of course, it is proven with facts).
The regime is not standing still, waiting to be dislodged, it reasserts
and screws itself every day with every decision it makes. My dear friend, Dr.
José María Rodríguez, author of the 1% Thesis (see The 1% thesis and
Constituent, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/the-1-thesis-and-constituent.html) indicates, not without reason,
that the upcoming local elections reaffirm his thesis of the incorporation to
that 1% of authentic local opposition leaders, who even though they are not in
favor of the regime and knowing that they are going to lose, prefer to play the
game by participating in those elections, in a sort of survival strategy until
things change.
This phenomenon is not something that can be considered punctual, it is absolutely structural. And it goes in the direction that it is a natural response of politics to the perception of the absence of something that is really a certain line of clear opposition and with results for the country.
Perhaps these words may sound harsh, and even unfair. But we are not facing just any opponent, and I consider that all Venezuelans are pained by this situation, so whether I am right or wrong in my statements, from this small tribune I feel obliged to make them, in order to bring them to the discussion of whoever is driving the opposition ship, which at this point I am beginning to doubt that it is the one we all believe and to which interests it responds.
There is a principle belonging to Applied Behavioral Science that indicates that reality and the perception of reality are two completely different things (see Perception is still reality, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/perception-is-still-reality.html). And I reaffirm here that this is especially true when it comes to politics, an area that is entirely in the realm of human behavior.
Why do I bring up this principle now? Because it can be seen from the perspective of the exercise of politics, so that we are prepared to identify when people are convinced of “realities”, when in truth what they are convinced of is the “perceptions” they have of those realities, sometimes distorted by the information we receive from the regime and the opposition. And that is doing us a lot of harm, especially when we are facing an opponent that manages the perceptions of reality at will.
But if indeed the regime is falling as the opposition shouts every day, it is clear to everyone that the opposition is doing absolutely nothing to prove that it is a reality (if it really is), because in Venezuela the perception is completely the opposite.
In Behavioral Science terms, there is a fundamental principle: People will be happier and more comfortable when they believe they have some control over a process in which they are directly involved, particularly if it is an unpleasant one. If we are in the face of an unequal, all-out struggle against someone they know is hurting us, they would always rather be in control of some part of that process than not.
Waiting passively for the leader to solve and “liberate the country” is definitely much more distressing and counterproductive, especially if he is wrong, because the perception of his guilt will be much more overwhelming than it would be if we are all participating in some way and in some concrete part of that process. Hence, the opposition strategy must establish formulas for citizen participation in this struggle, which for obvious reasons can no longer be electoral.
How could the opposition confront the perception of reality that the regime exposes? There are only two ways: either by demonstrating that the perception of reality indicated by the regime is false (showing that it is indeed falling), or by imposing its own perception of reality, based on palpable demonstrations of progress in the struggle, which unfortunately does not exist beyond the known milestones, the last one being almost a year ago.
The challenge is not easy, but not impossible either. Perhaps if the opposition opens itself to the creativity of the rest of Venezuelans, formulas can be found that will change the perception of the reality of the country to a more optimistic one, and more in line with what we all wish for. For the time being, let us hope that this approach is only part of a mistaken perception of this writer about the opposition, and that the reality is different. I do not think we will wait long to know what the reality really is…
Caracas, June 12, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
X (Twitter): @laguana
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