By Luis Manuel Aguana
I wish to begin this note with a question from the last paragraph of the
previous (see Guaidó and Trump’s speech, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_796.html) where I wondered
why Guaidó would return without an answer to our crisis. And maybe the question
was misphrased. Already Donald Trump told the world in his "State of the
Union" that he would immediately address our problem. More official than
that is impossible. Obviously he didn't say how he would do it but surely
something released Guaidó and his team in the White House off-camera. And here
I'm going to allow myself an exercise in logical inference, since I wasn't
there and I don't have any informants at Guaidó's side who can tell me what is
going to happen after Guaidó returns to Venezuela.
I think that logically the White House should have addressed the total
failure to date to remove the regime due to the mistakes of the opposition,
largely due to the problems faced by the interim government of Guaidó of being
subject to the arbitration of 4 parties, which as a sack of cats, operate
contradictorily and make it difficult to have a coherent strategy against this
regime of thugs. All of them have the most varied interests of wanting to rule
before having left the regime. It should be noted that Venezuela is the only
unresolved failure of Trump's foreign policy after the shining successes of
China, North Korea and Syria. And that gringo doesn't like to lose. Remember
"You're fired!" from the Trump TV show? I think some of that would go
through his head...
Without being interfering, Trump must have "suggested" to
Guaido and his interim government a strategy completely aligned with what the
U.S. government has already announced: zero elections of any kind with Maduro
in power and zero cohabitation with the regime. This is very similar to what
we, from what has been called the "radical opposition", have shouted
until we are tired of it and this line coincides with what Maria Corina Machado
has insisted on in Venezuela, and Antonio Ledezma and Diego Arria abroad. In
other words, a 180-degree change in what they have been doing and that has
failed.
Had this been Trump's "suggestion", it must not have pleased
Guaidó, who was initially more inclined to follow the line of Henry Ramos
Allup's "authoritarian enclave" doctrine, and committed to that party
to the core. Would that be the reason why AD and UNT said nothing about
Guaidó's enthusiastic reception in Trump's speech to the U.S. Congress?
Guaidó's visit to the U.S. could apparently be marking the beginning of a
reordering of the opposition in Venezuela.
I also wondered that Guaidó could not return to do the same as in 2019
and before his departure for that tour. As I indicated in my previous note, if
we continue in this way and nothing happens, the result would be the same as
last year: a total loss of credibility and call. And that can't happen anymore.
Trump would not be making this effort of support like the one deployed this
week without there being a return in concrete results in the direction of the
fall of the regime. Consequently, Guaidó's strategy upon his return to
Venezuela has to be different, or else our main ally will abandon him. And why
do I say this? Because somehow the U.S. government -my inference- must have
made it known to Juan Guaidó during his official visit that if he followed the
path he was on, he would abandon it and seek to solve the problem with or
without it, preferably with him. So
logic indicates that things have to change, and change radically.
And taking the exercise a little further, Guaidó would
then have to get closer to the line of those of us who think that there cannot
be more negotiations or elections with the criminals and focus on strategies
and actions that complement in Venezuela the U.S. line of "drying up"
the regime, because if one thing was clear in that visit it is the commitment
of the United States with the Venezuelan people to break and crush the Maduro
regime in the short term.
And how would you do that in practice? By separating
the interim government from the G4, by asserting the independence of the
President in charge from his party ties (which are not only with his party but
with the rest of the coalition) and by creating spaces for the serious and
official presence of political individuals who inside and outside Venezuela
have had the same line as Trump, even if those who still believe that going to
a Maduro election will let them "keep the spaces" are upset. What is
happening right now in the National Assembly is a clear example of that. In
this way Guaidó will have to lead a "new opposition" that excludes
the cohabiting and openly negotiating factors of elections, giving serious
space in his interim government to the radical opposition line whose only
objective is to expel the regime, away from the people within his government
who have done him much harm. This will purge the opposition by generating
credibility and confidence in the United States.
This will define who is and who is not serious about
Maduro's removal from power, sending a clear message to the Trump
administration that the interim government can guarantee the creation of
immediate objective conditions in Venezuela for Maduro's fall. At this point,
we would submit for the consideration of those who lead this new political
reality of opposition, ANCO's proposal for a Popular Consultation Plebiscite,
no longer as a formula to achieve the commitment of the International Community
to intervene, among other things because this was already officially expressed
this week by its most powerful exponent, the United States, but as the
fundamental political trigger of maximum strength for the Venezuelan people to
express constitutionally their unified support in favor of those who are
leading the process for the recovery of freedom and their most categorical
rejection of those who have destroyed our country. That would be Maduro's
definitive "You're fired!", no longer by Donald Trump's decision but
by the will of all Venezuelans.
Caracas, February 7, 2020
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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