By Luis Manuel Aguana
In all this confusion that has arisen from
the official position of the US government with its proposal called “Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela” of March 31st (see official proposal at https://www.state.gov/democratic-transition-framework-for-venezuela/) the only rational
political reaction has been that of the Maduro regime, rejecting the proposal.
And make no mistake, it is possible that this is precisely what the Americans
are looking for. We
will see below why.
It would be difficult to understand the new
position of the United States government in support of the proposal of
cohabitation with the regime formulated by the government in charge of Juan
Guaidó (see my last note Emergency Cohabitation, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/emergency-cohabitation.html), bringing from the past the same approaches made in the framework of
the dialogue conversations that had taken place in Oslo and Barbados, of a
transition government together with representatives of the regime, but without
Maduro and Guaidó on the ballot, which brought the unanimous rejection of the
opposing country.
And they know for a fact that this is not
exactly a solution to the Venezuelan crisis, not only because it ignores the
real political situation of the National Assembly which is not even in a
position to meet in the Federal Palace by orders of the regime, but because of
the shortcut of criminals who hold power in Venezuela, who have in their
pockets many - if not most - of the deputies of that official opposition, which
is why Guaidó did not want to enter the Chamber on January 5, 2020 when all the
opposition factions were already inside. Are those deputies the ones the
Americans want to see appointed to a Council of State? I insist, I do not
believe in political naivety. What are the Americans looking for then?
My question would not be why the gringos came
up with a proposal that fully supports President-in-Charge Juan Guaidó with his
National Emergency Government, only hours after it was announced, and after his
own Justice Department put a price on the heads of those in power in Venezuela.
My question is directed at how they intend to help us resolve the crisis with
something they know in advance will not work. I mentioned earlier that things
in the United States do not work as they do in other countries.
A year ago I was analyzing the issue of
military intervention in Venezuela (see Conflict of interests, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/conflict-of-interests.html) and I repeat what I mentioned on that occasion because it fits in with
what I am going to say next: "The
American administration functions as an orderly composition of watertight
compartments where the only one who has the vision of the whole is the
President. Anyone who says that the whole will do or will not do something is
not telling the truth because that is only within the competence of the
President of the United States. What's more, Elliott Abrams, who is what you
can call here a Deputy Foreign Minister in his area, may be saying that and at
the same time the DOD (Department of Defense) may be about to launch the troops
in Venezuela and the DOS (Department of State), on which Abrams depends, may
not even be aware of that maneuver if the President does not inform them, and
they may be the last to know internally. Things there do not work as they do
here or in any other country. So you see how ridiculous marras' claim is? And
even more ridiculous are those who repeat it”. And the statement was
precisely "in Venezuela there will be no military intervention by the
United States"...
Hours after it was announced -after years of
investigations- by an autonomous power of the US State, the Justice Department
and the Attorney General, that the main persons of the regime had been pointed
out as criminals who should be put at the order of the US justice, with a price
on their heads, the same government comes out to support this joint formula of
Guaidó where it is possible for characters of the regime pointed out by the
Justice Department to position themselves in key positions of a transition
government, and suspend their sanctions. What does that mean? That the U.S.
Executive Branch made a decision independent of its Judicial Branch for some
reason, backing Guaidó's cohabitation plan, which offers not only a lifeline to
Maduro and his regime but a whole ship for all of them to jump on. Is that good? I don't think so. Let's see.
As I mentioned at the beginning, the only
people who have reacted rationally to this proposal are the characters of the
regime. And why do I say this? Because the only ones who would not be saved
there are those who have been singled out by the Justice Department because
they have concrete and open accusations over their heads; and no matter how
much the Trump government that has no power over its justice, or a possible
Venezuelan transitional government, saves them with a supposed Council of State
Act, they will continue to be sought out and persecuted internationally with a
price over their heads. And if these same characters are precisely the ones who
hold power in our country, what could be the expected rational response? The
one just given by the regime: that they go to hell.
Therefore, this proposal is not viable, no
matter how well intentioned or naïve it may have been, or how ignorant of the
Venezuelan political reality those who made it may have been, regardless of the
fact that it appeared to support the position of Guaidó and its government in
charge. In the best case of being able to carry out this proposal, it will be
difficult for this "Council of State" described above to end up in
the hands of the opposition. It would fall under the control of the
"little table" and the PSUV, not to mention the fact that it is
unconstitutional for the powers of the President of the Republic to pass into
the hands of a body that is not described in the Constitution (points 5 and 6
of the Transitional Framework). But since the Constitution has already been
given everything, one more does not make a difference.
Now, if they already know that the proposal
is unworkable, what is left? To leave things as they are? That's no longer
possible. Maduro and his thousand thieves are fugitives from American justice. What do we do with that? It said at the end of a
previous note something that I didn't end up explaining in detail (see After
March 26th, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/after-march-26th.html): What happens in Venezuela will be decided by who specifically ends up
displacing Nicolas Maduro Moros from power and apprehending those designated by
the U.S. justice system, including Maduro. If negotiations/cohabitation are not
possible, as Guaidó and the G4 aspire to, and the Americans accidentally do,
because they want to avoid the inevitable, then the displacement must be
forced. And that displacement will take everyone by the horns, G4 included (go
soak your fences!). I doubt very much that at this point Guaidó believes that
cohabitation with these criminals is still possible. But any stupidity is
possible in the absurd world of Venezuelan politics...
If that action is carried out by the military
High Command of the current regime and they are handed over to the US
authorities, the next thing will be what they decide. And that will not be
precisely to look for Guaidó to put him in Miraflores at the expense of the
President-in-Charge. The person they designate will take power, with the usual
initial decrees that make that legal. If an international military coalition
does it because the regime did not accept this last olive branch as a world
symbol of peace from the Americans, then it will be the gringos and company who
will decide to whom they will hand over power after an intervention, with the
same initial legal coverage as any government that begins in those
circumstances. The rest is fairy tales and the gringos know it. The clock is ticking for everyone...
Caracas, April 1, 2020
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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