By Luis Manuel Aguana
Versión en español
I would like to address an uncomfortable topic. I call it uncomfortable because everyone seems to avoid it—even though I have mentioned it in interviews and in posts on this very blog. It has come to feel like a taboo subject or a forbidden topic of open discussion—not because people are persecuted for raising it, but because no one dares to touch upon its implications. That is why I believe it is necessary to discuss it openly.
I am referring to the implications of holding elections without changing the technical-electoral infrastructure of the Castro-Chavista-Madurista system—which remains fully in place—and without altering the legal framework of the National Electoral Council (CNE). I am also addressing the conviction held by the entire opposition—especially the faction led by María Corina Machado (MCM)—that if elections were held in Venezuela tomorrow, "we would beat the regime just as we did on July 28, 2024." This is a myth that has been sold to the average Venezuelan since the 2024 elections, and it is a myth that needs to be debunked.
Everyone agrees that the solution for Venezuela involves holding immediate elections to "oust" the Delcy Rodríguez regime and begin a new chapter in Venezuelan politics. In theory, this would be true if there were an immediate system in place capable of guaranteeing to the public that the results reflect exactly what they cast in the ballot boxes—and nothing else. The reality, however, is that we do not have such a system.
Throughout the negotiations involving the two National Assemblies (2015 and 2025), no one discussed—nor is anyone currently discussing—a new electoral system or the reconstruction of the legal and procedural infrastructure for voting in this country. We are still stuck with the same single-polling-station centers that favor the PSUV and the regime’s rigged electoral districts, not to mention an automated system originally created to hand Chávez a victory in the 2004 recall referendum.
No one is considering the idea that the important question isn't when Venezuelans will be elected, but when we will have a system that truly delivers reliable results that impact the power structure. If we hold elections with the same Castro-Chávez-Maduro electoral infrastructure, Delcy and her cronies will remain in power, period. And with the backing of the US...
The reason is simple: the person least interested in changes to the electoral system is the very same individual who invented electronic voting, guaranteeing Chávez and Maduro an automated mechanism capable of producing the results necessary to keep them in power. And that individual is the regime's main representative in the new negotiations sponsored by the US government. And the worst part is that the main opposition representative hasn't said a word about it…
Given the current course of action, it's highly unlikely that the regime won't hold elections this time, especially since they've already secured the means by which the official records of July 28, 2024, were released with the true results, instead of those altered by the automated system since 2004.
I explain how this technical fraud was carried out in Venezuela in my article of March 22, 2026, “A Confession of fraud no need for proof” (see article in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/a-confession-of-fraud-no-need-for-proof.html).
But the most important thing was what happened, or rather, DID NOT HAPPEN, on July 28, 2024. In my note of April 28, 2026 (see The Non-Fraud of 28J, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/the-non-fraud-of-july-28th.html), the technicians who were supposed to execute the malicious software on July 28, 2024, failed to do so (or prevented it from running from the outside—effectively the same thing), thereby stopping the regime from distorting the results and ensuring the tally sheets reflected the true outcome.
There was absolutely no opposition involvement in that operation—neither by the *comanditos* nor by anyone else in the opposition. They simply collected the tally sheets and transmitted a decisive percentage of them to the secure servers set up for that purpose. That in itself was the feat we all witnessed; however, had the software designed to alter results since 2004 actually run, they would have collected the fraudulent tally sheets declaring Maduro the winner—the very ones the regime expected them to obtain. This is what emerges from statements made by Venezuelan hackers currently in U.S. federal custody as part of the investigation into alleged fraud involving Dominion Voting Systems in U.S. elections.
When the tally sheets began to emerge as they should—reflecting the will of the people—the regime ordered a halt to the printing of results from voting machines at polling centers, but the vast majority had already been printed. The rest is well-known history: Maduro ordered the CNE’s "napkin man" to commit fraud by announcing results favoring the regime.
Amidst the ongoing crisis regarding Delcy’s illegitimacy, everyone seems to have forgotten that Jorge Rodríguez’s machines remain at the CNE, containing the very same system that was prevented from altering the results from the outside. By now, the regime has learned how to technically prevent that from happening again.
But if we add to this the fact that the public was kept in the dark about what truly happened regarding the alteration of results on July 28, 2024, Venezuelans will continue to believe that it was "the strength of the *comanditos* and the Venezuelan people" that secured Edmundo González Urrutia’s victory. That is why the regime is laughing all the way to the bank; meanwhile, an electoral system that is highly toxic to the country's democratic health remains in place—with the opposition's acquiescence—ready to be used again to thwart any attempt to oust these thugs from power.
The implications of this reality are monumental. No one can beat a rigged roulette wheel. Yet that is exactly what we will face if the opposition persists in pushing for immediate elections *without* fundamentally overhauling the country's electoral system—dismissing such a change as unnecessary based on a myth they themselves have propagated. That lies at the heart of the matter. But I wonder: do they actually *want* to change it? At this point, I think not. I suspect they would rather inherit it...
I do not believe there are stupid people in the opposition (though such people exist everywhere). The real question is whether that stupidity extends to consciously allowing the regime to remain in power; in that scenario, MCM would lose by a narrow margin, just as Capriles lost to Maduro in 2013. Did Henrique Capriles really lose two consecutive elections to the regime? After learning how they pulled it off, I highly doubt it...
Assuming the opposition comes to its senses and begins seriously demanding changes to the electoral systems (the voter registry and the voting mechanism itself) and the relevant legislation—aiming to implement a system in Venezuela based on manual voting and secure transmission—they should be organizing right now to propose such a system. They ought to establish the necessary mechanisms within those negotiations to design and present a new electoral system to the country as soon as possible. Note that this has NOTHING to do with the appointment of CNE rectors. That step would come last, as it would be up to them to implement a new system for Venezuelans; regardless of who is appointed, a secure system designed in this way is what would truly guarantee free, fair, and verifiable elections.
But all of the above requires TIME—something Venezuelans are unwilling to grant anyone—and the political class is reluctant to bear that cost in the face of a deeply battered society that demands an immediate way out of the crisis. That is why it is time to speak plainly and truthfully to the Venezuelan people. That time is necessary to resolve the crisis. And the worst part is that we do not yet know exactly how much time is required.
Only a technical commission appointed for that specific task could calculate this. This issue is NOT POLITICAL; IT IS TECHNICAL. You might ask: "And while this change to the electoral system is taking place, are we stuck with Maduro’s heirs?" That is a crucial question. And the solution cannot be to ignore the usurpation of the presidency, regardless of the support it may receive from the U.S. government.
This is precisely where the proposal for a Transitional Government Junta originates. A legitimate authority must take charge of the government while the electoral changes are implemented—ensuring from a position of power that they actually happen—because the regime led by the Rodríguez clan would be the last to want to carry them out, for all the reasons I have already explained. Do you grasp the situation?
However, since elections could not be held in the very short term—given that the current electoral system is severely compromised—this Junta should be appointed by the incoming Supreme Court of Justice. That court is the only branch of the Republic capable of finding a constitutional solution to the executive branch's current illegitimacy by directly and temporarily appointing those who will exercise executive power—drawing on our republican tradition—while the election process is resolved.
MCM should be the first to support this proposal, as she stands to benefit most from clean, authentic elections, given that she is currently the frontrunner in every poll conducted to date. Whatever solution is found for the illegitimacy of the executive branch, the next step—whether involving the Junta or occurring after it—must necessarily be the convening of a National Constituent Assembly to refound Venezuela and its institutions. Yet, as I noted at the start, this remains a subject no one wants to discuss—much like mentioning a noose in the home of a man who was hanged. Unless we confront the issues we prefer to avoid with seriousness and resolve, we will never emerge from this tragedy, and the Rodríguezes—or anyone else—will entrench themselves in power in Venezuela. The moment of truth has arrived. It is time to dismantle the myth.
Caracas, October 7, 2026
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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